US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jun. 2026) Despite the unchanged reading in June, second-quarter manufacturing output expanded at a solid 4.7% annualised pace, supported by booming production of hi-tech inputs for the AI buildout. The recent... 17th July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Burnham inherits economic resilience that won’t last The recent resilience of the UK economy is unlikely to last in the second half of the year when the full effects of higher energy prices are felt. Further ahead, Andy Burnham is unlikely to achieve a... 17th July 2026 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Pending Home Sales & Mortgage Apps. (Jun. 2026) Pending home sales and purchase mortgage applications both point to existing home sales falling back below a 4m annualised pace in the coming months. With higher Treasury yields likely to put further... 16th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jul. 2026) The housing market continued to slowly improve in June and the recent rebound in government bond yields is unlikely to be large enough to trigger any renewed near-term weakness. Meanwhile, the... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jun 2026) The moderate gains in headline and control group retail sales in June are much better than they look considering the softness of price growth last month. Indeed, we estimate that real consumption... 16th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2026) The 0.1% m/m rise in real GDP in May is not a bad welcome gift for incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham as it suggests the economy may have grown by around 0.4% q/q in Q2. But with higher energy... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jul. 2026) The Bank's messaging accompanying its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% in July suggests it has no intention of responding to energy-driven inflation with higher interest rates... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Why Burnham will struggle to revive UK growth Andy Burnham is unlikely to significantly boost the economy’s sustainable growth rate, partly because it is hard to do and he’s unlikely to have long to do it, but also because his diagnosis of the... 15th July 2026 · 15 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (May 2026) The rise in manufacturing sales in May was accompanied by a surge in new and unfilled orders, confirming that the sector remains in a cyclical upswing despite punitive US sector-specific tariffs. 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jun 2026) The producer price data lead us to estimate that the core PCE deflator rose at a target-consistent pace of 0.16% m/m in June. Nonetheless, that would still leave the three-month annualised rate at 3.0... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Data centre boom making the RBA’s job harder Australia’s data centre boom has yet to generate a broad-based inflationary impulse. But by adding demand to an already stretched construction sector, it risks prolonging capacity constraints and... 15th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How to think about AI & inflation We think that the boost to demand from the AI investment boom is outweighing the disinflationary effects of any AI-driven productivity gains. Any suggestions that AI paves the way for near-term... 14th July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jun 2026) The unchanged core CPI in June is not quite as good as it looks for the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure, but the latter should still have risen at close to a target-consistent rate last month. That... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Warsh assembles his dream team(s) The list of names announced this week to lead Kevin Warsh’s task forces on improving Fed operations comprise a well-respected and diverse group of academic economists, former central bankers, and... 10th July 2026 · 8 mins read
