China Economics Focus How long can Chinese industry keep losing money? Overcapacity in China and the trade surplus that it feeds are sustained by policy choices made in Beijing. These policies hurt China’s banks, its fiscal position, economic productivity and household... 8th September 2026 · 22 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Aug. 2026) China’s trade growth remained robust in August, with both exports and imports continuing to grow at a rapid pace. Strong global demand for electronics remained an important support for exports. Import... 8th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (July 2026) The sharp narrowing of the goods trade surplus in July was not only a price effect from lower energy and metal prices, as export volumes fell too, implying that net trade was a drag on GDP at the... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jul 2026) The sharp widening of the trade deficit in July was primarily due to sharp rebounds in AI-related goods imports, pouring cold water on the idea that the AI buildout may already be losing momentum and... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: risk of currency, sovereign debt crises growing Tunisia’s fragile external position has deteriorated further since the onset of the Iran war and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. Officials have tightened access to foreign currency in a bid... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Services exports to keep current account deficit in check Continued strength in services exports will help to mitigate much of the impact of elevated oil prices and a slowdown in remittance inflows from the Gulf on India’s current account position. We think... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade dispute overshadows good news on GDP News that the economy rebounded by a strong 3.3% annualised last quarter will be overshadowed by the fallout from the breakdown in trade negotiations with the US. The biggest risk is that tariffs... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the US-Canada trade war, Brazil’s slowdown The recent US-Canada trade talks that fell apart abruptly offer hints that Mexico might be able to secure concessions on auto and steel. And the US’s demands for a say on Canada’s external trade... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly A further thawing in Sino-Indian relations Talks between India and China this week on demarcating and managing the disputed border in the Himalayas are the latest (small) steps in the thawing of that relationship over the past 18 months or so... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC leans against RMB gains, sanction risks limited The premium between the renminbi spot rate and the PBOC’s daily fix is now at its largest in over a decade, a sign that the central bank is becoming more resistant to further appreciation. The PBOC is... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed sharply in July, reflecting disruptions to construction and industry from typhoons as well as the ongoing drag from weak fiscal spending. But... 28th August 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (August 2026) The world economy has been resilient in the face of high energy prices. Outside the Gulf, global GDP growth looks to have been stable in Q2, as government support, saving buffers, and the AI boom have... 27th August 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Unveils Retaliatory Tariffs and Relief Package The retaliatory tariffs announced today largely match the Section 338 tariffs imposed on Canada last week, reflecting a response which is politically popular but economically insignificant – and... 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (August 2026) Economic growth has generally held up well since the start of the year, albeit with a divergence that is likely to persist in the coming quarters. Poland is likely to be an outperformer while Romania... 25th August 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Economic growth in the region has been resilient in the face of the energy shock, and we think it will accelerate from here. Inflation held steady or slowed, including in Nigeria and South Africa... 24th August 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2026) Capital flows into EM bond and equity markets have returned to positive territory in the past few weeks and are nearing their highest level in over two years. Even if flows were to reverse course, our... 24th August 2026 · 2 mins read
