China Economics Update Transhipment crackdown not a big threat to China’s exports We agree with the White House’s assessment that China’s indirect exports to the US have risen sharply since US tariffs first came into force. But it remains unclear how much of this is illegal... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA food inflation slump, Ethiopia FX, Zambia election The fall in South African inflation in July is likely to be followed by a pick-up in the coming months due to unfavourable base effects. But underlying inflation pressures, as well as food inflation... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Despite some softness in recent months, we expect a continuation of the AI capex boom and a broadening of investment to drive above-consensus GDP growth, which should rise to 2.6% next year. That... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) While the economy gained momentum in the second quarter, we expect GDP growth to slow again in the second half of the year amid ongoing uncertainty around CUSMA negotiations. The combination of soft... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE tensions, UAE-Iran trade ties, Egypt spreads Reports that Saudi Arabia has increased monitoring of financial transactions with the UAE appears to be part of growing geopolitical competition between the two countries. The macro impact should be... 20th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising EV exports won’t offset falling ICE sales The euro-zone’s exports of cars have fallen dramatically since 2017. This loss is driven by internal combustion engine vehicles, whereas exports of electric vehicles (EVs) are rising rapidly. Even if... 20th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2026) Recently released data support our view that emerging markets will – the Gulf economies aside – ride out the energy shock pretty well. At the same time, inflation pressures look contained and are... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs benefit if tourists don’t return to the Gulf? The recovery in tourism by non-GCC nationals to the Gulf remains slow. If this persists, shifting travel patterns might result in significant gains in some smaller economies in the Caribbean and the... 18th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Section 338 tariffs further delay a worsening CUSMA The new Section 338 tariffs risk pushing the economy back towards recession, especially if Ottawa’s planned retaliation invites further aggression from the US. Worse still, a renewed trade war muddies... 17th August 2026 (Updated 24th August 2026) · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects improve for a deal to avert 50% tariffs Reports this week that the US is willing work with Canada to reduce, though not fully eliminate, some of its sector-specific tariffs make us slightly more confident that the 50% Section 338 tariffs... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA extended, Kenya and Uganda hold rates The African Growth and Opportunity Act took another step towards being extended this week, providing further evidence that Africa is emerging from the latest US trade actions relatively unscathed... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil imports surge, inflation expectations rising The goods trade data for July released this week show that Russia now accounts for more than half of India’s crude oil imports, the highest share on record. But that economic relationship could be... 14th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to expect in Zambia’s election President Hakainde Hichilema enters tomorrow’s general elections in Zambia as the frontrunner, buoyed by progress on long-running sovereign debt restructuring and a strong copper windfall. The next... 12th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can Africa move up the commodity value chain? Governments in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are increasingly turning to interventionist measures to boost refining of commodities. But many of the conditions to make this a success, including transport... 11th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economy still struggling to rebalance While Turkey has come through the energy shock without major balance of payments strains, the trade-off facing policymakers between reducing inflation and restoring external balance is getting starker... 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
