China Economics Weekly US import bans are a double-edged sword The US is considering banning imports of Chinese optical transceivers, according to a Reuters report published this week. While a transceiver ban alone wouldn't do much to dent exports, the risk for... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Tariff State of Play This Focus provides a detailed analysis of recent changes in US tariff policy and discusses what future changes are likely. It addresses some key questions about how the new Section 301 and Section... 7th August 2026 · 19 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jul. 2026) The boom in Chinese trade slowed a touch in July but the big picture is that export and import values remain elevated, helped by soaring global demand for electronics and green tech products. Crude... 7th August 2026 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jun. 2026) The slight narrowing of the trade deficit in June reflected a fall in imports of AI goods which helped to offset the big fall in energy exports. This suggests the second estimate of second-quarter GDP... 4th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jun. 2026) The continued rise in the trade surplus was largely attributable to a jump in gold exports, although there were still genuine pockets of strength in the external sector. This offset a drop in oil... 4th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Hormuz closure pushing Bahrain to the brink The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to create further strains in Bahrain’s balance of payments. FX reserves provide very limited capacity to sustain the dollar peg and roll over... 3rd August 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Chipmaking progress doesn’t change bigger picture While news this week that a Chinese firm has started to mass-produce advanced lithography machines is a momentous development for chipmaking in China, China's hardware lag is still significant. As a... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (July 26) At around 3.2% y/y, China’s growth in Q2 was over 1%-pt weaker than official figures suggest. But growth has held steady in the face of the Iran war. Exports have continued to surge, largely driven by... 30th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: lower US tariffs, but China will be the key partner Sub-Saharan Africa has come out of the latest round of US tariffs in a better position relative both to last year and to many other EMs. That will provide opportunities for some countries. But even so... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The renminbi could not rebalance China on its own A significant appreciation of the renminbi would narrow China’s enormous trade surplus but it would also make the domestic deflation problem worse. This trade-off can only be addressed if a stronger... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2026) Global growth appears to be regaining momentum, led by the US among advanced economies. We expect this trend to continue, supported by strong AI investment despite the risk posed by renewed... 30th July 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Profit pick-up doesn’t signal overcapacity being resolved The recent pick-up in industrial profit growth is not a sign that excess capacity in China’s manufacturing sector is being meaningfully resolved. Strong profit growth is concentrated in a few sectors... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Economic growth in the region has been resilient in the face of the energy shock, and we think growth will accelerate from here. Although inflation rose last month, most central banks will be able to... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (July 2026) Capital inflows into EMs financial markets – particularly equities – have risen over the past month despite the resumption of conflict in the Middle East. Outflows could return again if the situation... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July '26) The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will set back the nascent recoveries in the Gulf economies. And the downside risks to our forecast for a ~6%... 29th July 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil tariffs: modest macro hit, political boost for Lula Brazil has been in the crosshairs in the US’s latest tariff salvo, which will lead to a renewed drop in exports to the US over the coming months. But the impact on GDP growth and inflation should... 28th July 2026 · 3 mins read
