Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2026) The renewed US-Iran attacks and closure of the Strait of Hormuz will, if sustained, prolong recessions in the Gulf economies and weigh on activity in energy-importing EMs. But continued strong demand... 21st July 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2026) The outlook hinges on the outcome of CUSMA negotiations, with the Trump administration’s latest 50% tariff announcement underscoring the risks. For now, we still think an agreement will be reached at... 21st July 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Outlines New Tariffs on Canada President Trump’s set of proclamations imposing 50% tariffs on goods imported from Canada are not as broad as the initial media reports suggest, with the included item codes covering only 5% of goods... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (July 2026) We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% and 2.3% this year and next, driven by strong AI-investment and a rebound in consumption growth. The labour market appears to be stabilising, and we expect the... 20th July 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine joy, oil price jump, Brazil tariffs The US's announcement of a 25% Section 301 US import tariff on Brazil made a splash this week, but the macroeconomic effect is likely to limited. Meanwhile, the renewed rise in oil prices would - if... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update AI and the evolution of India’s services exports India’s services exports have long been associated with low-cost call centres and business process outsourcing (BPO). But in recent years, multinationals have been building product development... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jun. 2026) Trade values took another big leg up in June. This predominantly reflects the recent surge in semiconductor prices on the back of the AI boom. But even putting that aside, foreign demand for Chinese... 14th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mixed news on inflation, Argentina’s debt repayment The larger-than-expected rise in inflation in the Andes in June is likely to pave the way for an interest rate hike in Peru while increasing the chances of Colombia’s central bank continuing its... 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebound in energy prices not yet a major worry The rebound in energy prices following the breakdown in the US-Iran ceasefire is not big enough to change our view that the ECB has probably finished its hiking “cycle”. Meanwhile, we think President... 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly GPIF set to come to the bond market’s rescue Finance Minister Katayama’s announcement that the government will encourage pension funds, including the GPIF, to invest more in Japanese financial assets has helped unwind the spike in bond yields... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s rebalancing: progress, but more to be done Argentina’s rebalancing process has entered a more challenging phase and the government now faces the tricky trade-off between maintaining a strong exchange rate to bring down inflation or loosening... 9th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU-China talks will not stop tariffs rising Recent EU initiatives aimed at slowing the rise in imports from China are unlikely to result in a radical change in approach. We think the EU will step up its trade defence measures gradually while... 9th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (May 2026) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in May was largely down to price effects and can therefore be looked through. That said, the surprise, large fall in computer imports poses a downside risk to... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (May 2026) Surge in trade surplus entirely down to price effects The further improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance to a four-year high was not as good as it looks, as total export volumes were essentially... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Deal or no deal, trade with the US will remain seismic The lack of agreement to renew CUSMA will change little for trade with the US in the near term. And, even if the US were to withdraw, deep historical integration and lower tariffs post-IEEPA make it... 3rd July 2026 · 5 mins read
