China Economics Weekly PBOC pushes back against RMB undervaluation claims The PBOC has attempted to set the record straight on the nature of its FX intervention and refute claims that currency depreciation is driving China’s soaring trade surplus. While we agree that a... 9th October 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Le Pen the fiscal hawk? Merz the China hawk? Marine Le Pen's proposals this week to slash France's budget deficit are unlikely to have done much to bolster her fiscal credentials. Meanwhile, the joint letter by Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
China Scenarios China Economic Scenarios - Q4 2026 China Scenarios brings together Capital Economics’ best-in-class research and proprietary data on China with Fathom’s world-leading scenario modelling and proprietary data. It contains six thematic... 9th October 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s conundrum, regional rating agency Contained inflation and higher FX reserves have given Kenya's central bank a buffer to avoid hiking interest rates for now, but we still think the shilling will eventually need to be devalued and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China could weather tougher EU trade restrictions Even a sharp escalation in EU trade restrictions would have only a small impact on China’s economy. We estimate that an additional 20%-pt tariff on Chinese imports across strategically important... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iraq devalues, more Qatar gas soon, Jordan growth Iraq's devaluation of the dinar this week highlights the strains in the economy from the hit to its oil revenues. But given the boost to the public finances from the devaluation, as well as limited FX... 8th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen found its feet amid the bond sell-off The yen has, surprisingly, been one of the best performers this year amid the rise in bond yields; we think it will fare even better once they fall back. 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Aug. 2026) The widening of the trade deficit in August on the back of a sharp rise in imports suggests third quarter GDP growth will be well below our current forecast of 4.0%. 6th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Aug. 2026) The rebound in the goods trade surplus in August, to its joint-highest since the start of 2025, owes a fair bit to higher oil prices and frontrunning ahead of Section 338 tariffs. While it provides... 6th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Tariffs likely to far outlast Trump The precarious fiscal situation means the next administration will be in no rush to remove the tariffs that are in place at the end of President Trump’s term. Nonetheless, under most future scenarios... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly AI trade surplus rising, despite surge in chip imports China's trade deficit in chips and computing equipment has increasing significantly over the past year as imports have surged. But an even larger pick-up in exports of other goods required to build... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering the energy shock We expect the global economy to remain resilient in the face of the energy shock. In Asia, many governments will continue to shield their economies from the worst of higher energy prices. In most DMs... 30th September 2026 · 46 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook AI boosting Asian growth, but support will fade Booming exports of AI-related products have helped offset the drag from higher energy prices and should continue to support growth across most of Asia in the near term. The AI boom is not feeding... 29th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (September 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent soft batch of activity data across many parts of Latin America is... 29th September 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus China Shock 2.0 may sow the seeds of the next crisis China’s soaring exports are widening global trade imbalances in ways that echo the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. History suggests that at some point these must narrow. This could happen in... 29th September 2026 · 31 mins read
China Economics Update US-China tariff tweaks don’t change the bigger picture The US and China have announced significant tariff cuts on goods covered by the new bilateral Board of Trade. But the scheme only covers “non-sensitive” goods that make up a small share of China’s... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
