India Economics Weekly Russian oil and US tariffs: the stakes are higher this time It's not clear that President Trump will implement a tariff on buyers of Russian oil following the US House's passage of legislation this week, given that it would cause further tightening in the oil... 18th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus China Shock hitting euro-zone harder than most regions China Shock 2.0 will be a structural drag on euro-zone growth for the rest of this decade. Consumers will benefit from cheaper and increasingly sophisticated Chinese imports but manufacturers are... 16th September 2026 · 12 mins read
India Economic Outlook Stage is set for RBI rate hikes After a very strong first half of the year, India’s economy is set to cool but annual GDP growth should still average 7% from 2026-2028, an enviable rate by global standards. Rising food prices on... 16th September 2026 · 17 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July 2026) After euro-zone industrial production edged down in July, we expect the sector to continue to struggle as the increase in EU natural gas prices gradually feeds through to industrial gas and... 16th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Aug. 26) Japan’s crude oil import volumes held up well in August but importers are still paying a premium to secure sufficient crude oil supplies outside of the Middle East. 16th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging interest rate cycles Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on... 15th September 2026 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2026) EM growth appears to have softened at the start of Q3, but we still think it will accelerate in the coming quarters. As things stand, it doesn’t look like EM central banks will respond to the renewed... 15th September 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Another rare earths crunch China's rare earth exports have been falling ever since Presidents Trump and Xi met in May, despite US suggestions that China had committed to keep shipments flowing. There has been no public pushback... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico, AI supply chains & fiscal slippage Data released over the past week provide growing evidence that Mexico’s industrial sector is benefiting from integration into AI supply chains. But this is being offset by weakness in the rest of the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump may yet tighten the screw further While the Trump administration's planned import ban on some Canadian goods doesn't change much for the growth outlook, further escalation such as US withdrawal from CUSMA could be disastrous. We... 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account deteriorates, Senegal’s debt problem Q2 data this week showed the energy shock is putting South Africa’s current account position under strain, and with oil prices back above $100pb, we expect that external pressure to persist in the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Tight fiscal stances, deteriorating terms of trade and weakening labour markets mean that Latin American economies will continue to struggle and we think regional growth will come in below 2% in the... 10th September 2026 · 21 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s export gains go beyond strategic goods Concerns abroad about China’s surging exports have largely focused on “strategic sectors”. Less acknowledged is that China has been gaining significant global market share across the board, including... 10th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt refineries, Qatar’s budget blowout The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war. This raises the risk of a... 10th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump ups the ante with import ban on Canada President Trump’s import ban covers only 0.25% of Canada’s exports to the US and will have little effect on either economy. Nonetheless, Trump’s willingness to impose an import ban is further evidence... 9th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Korean won’s rebound has further to run The Korean won has rallied recently as some of the factors that had previously weighed on the currency, such as foreigners’ selling of Korean equities, have started to unwind and major Korean firms... 8th September 2026 · 3 mins read
