China Economics Weekly China’s long chase after the US AI Goliath China’s AI computing capacity is expanding rapidly, but the gap with the US remains substantial and could widen further. Chinese AI models are likely to remain competitive. But limited access to... 23rd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly RENGO pushing for another large Shunto pay hike With the energy cost shock barely making a dent in Japan's trade balance and corporate profits going from strength to strength, trade unions are demanding another strong pay hike in next year's spring... 23rd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Japan’s yttrium shortage highlights global vulnerability Japan’s emerging yttrium shortage illustrates the broader vulnerability created by China’s dominance of rare earth supply. The immediate economic impact appears limited, but disruption could intensify... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf energy flows, Egypt’s IMF deal and rate decision Reports this week suggest that crude oil flows from the Gulf have returned to pre-war levels which, if sustained, will boost regional GDP and oil export receipts. But, so long as there is no political... 22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Jackdaw will have little macroeconomic impact The UK government’s decision to allow production at the Jackdaw North Sea gas field is unlikely to have a material impact on the UK economy. It should provide a modest boost to domestic gas production... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain needs more financing sooner rather than later Bahrain probably requires the other Gulf countries to pledge further financial support in order to sustain its dollar peg and roll over maturing external debt. We remain of the view that this will be... 21st October 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update GDP pick-up belies weaker domestic demand Official GDP growth picked up in Q3, but the improvement masks a further weakening in domestic demand. The detailed breakdown suggests that last quarter’s rebound was driven entirely by net exports... 21st October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Impacts of renewed trade war mixed so far The recent downturn in the manufacturing sector is not entirely attributable to the US' new Section 338 tariffs, though timelier data on new orders suggest there could be more downside yet to be felt. 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update How would Canada fare without Quebec and Alberta? The blow to GDP from the loss of Quebec industry and Alberta’s oil and gas sector could be mediated somewhat by continued free trade, firms relocating from the seceding provinces to the rest of Canada... 15th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt’s balance of payments The latest Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are causing disruption as the Kingdom enters a key season for conferences as well as entertainment and cultural events, setting back the recent recovery in... 15th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (August 2026) After making a slow start to Q3, we expect euro-zone industrial production to have picked up in September. But the medium-term outlook remains poor due to pressure from China and rising wholesale... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda’s external pressures force aggressive tightening The Bank of Uganda’s (BoU) decision to raise its policy rate by 225bp to 12.00% at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the deterioration in the country’s external position. So long as global... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2026) EM growth appears to have weakened in Q3 but we think it will accelerate this quarter. Inflation is set to rise further and, with policymakers turning cautious, we have pencilled in further rate hikes... 14th October 2026 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Sep. 2026) China’s trade growth strengthened further in September, with both exports and imports expanding rapidly. Higher prices of semiconductors and key commodities are flattering the figures, especially on... 14th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU-China hybrid deal a potential blueprint for future The EU-China deal on plug-in hybrids is another step to strengthen EU trade defences and also offers a blueprint for future deals, but it is still consistent with the EU moving in a targeted and... 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Parsing the RBI’s messaging, US Green Card curbs The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this week with a 25bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.50%) and Governor Sanjay Malhotra's worries about a "generalisation of inflation" suggest to us that further... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
