Bonds Update Gilts are down but not out Higher energy prices alongside renewed fiscal concerns have pushed Gilt yields to multi-decade highs, but we continue to think they will fall back over the next year or so. We’ll be discussing the... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Learning to live with extreme weather events The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will be a greater source of economic volatility than in the past and could hit some sectors particularly hard. The changing nature of... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) opted to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut, to 3.25% at today’s meeting, and with inflation likely to increase over the coming months we think it will opt for a temporary... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin retail poised for a 15% capital value uplift by end-2028 Weakness in retail spending is likely to hold back the recovery in Dublin prime high street rents in the near term, but conditions appear ripe for a revival. Given the comparatively high level of... 1st September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (August 2026) August’s energy-led rise in euro-zone HICP inflation might bolster the case for a rate hike next week, but the ECB should be reassured by the absence of indirect and second-round effects. 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (July 26) After June posted the weakest rate of net lending since March 2024, July saw a return to the pace of net lending witnessed in the first five months of the year, reaching £1.53bn. The second half the... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2026) July’s money and lending figures show that the near-term outlook for the housing market is weak, households may have funded some of their spending in July by lowering their saving rate and borrowing... 1st September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Aug. 2026) The small rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in August underlines the continued drag on buyers’ appetite from the previous rise in mortgage rates. Uncertainty over possible tax rises in... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Q2 GDP shows clearer signs of rebalancing Turkey’s GDP expanded by 1.1% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in a year, but beneath the surface there were clear signs of softening domestic demand, with household consumption and imports both... 31st August 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Flattening yield curves, CAPE nears dotcom extremes We don’t expect lasting relief for short-dated Treasuries, although we expect those in Europe to fare better over time. Meanwhile, our base case remains that the equity market has further to rise... 31st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly September ECB hike looks nailed on The rise in natural gas prices in recent weeks, together with the continued strength of the euro-zone economy, mean that a September ECB hike now looks nailed on. Decisions thereafter will depend on... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Food inflation will soon be back on the menu The recent marked easing in food price inflation won’t last long as it’s only a matter of time before the rise in global agricultural commodity prices feeds into the prices on the supermarket shelves... 28th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (August 2026) August’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) suggests that the economy has continued to expand despite higher energy prices and extreme summer heat. And the selling price expectations indices... 28th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rate cut windows (re-)open in Turkey and Hungary Softer inflation suggests that there’s more scope for monetary easing this year in Hungary and Turkey than we had previously thought, and we have pencilled in more rate cuts into our profile. In... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Using public land won’t solve Burnham’s homebuilding problems Based on the government’s current assessment of public land that is deemed vacant, we think there is only enough space to build up to 19,000 council homes in total. This would do little to meet... 27th August 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Small, medium or big, the Budget is unlikely to spark growth Regardless of whether the Chancellor, John Healey, opts for a small, medium or big Budget, economic growth is unlikely to be much stronger over the next few years. Our hunch is that a medium-sized... 27th August 2026 · 6 mins read
