Bonds Update AI rally and oil prices to drive EM asset divergence While local-currency bonds in parts of LatAm and EM Europe may outperform those in Asia if oil prices fall, equities in those regions are likely to continue to lag their Asian peers as the AI rally... 26th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus How hedge funds are shaking up sovereign bond markets The increased footprint of hedge funds in sovereign bond markets is one reason why these markets will remain susceptible to frequent bouts of volatility. This Focus examines, more broadly, the risks... 26th August 2026 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update Perfect storm is brewing for EU natural gas prices The recent rise in EU natural gas prices to their highest level in over three years has been driven by a combination of constrained LNG supply and hot temperatures lifting demand. Against the backdrop... 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug. 2026) The further fall in Hungarian inflation meant the 25bp interest rate cut (to 5.50%) today was never in doubt and it’s now looking likely that the base rate will be cut well into Q4. We have pencilled... 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tech-related demand to support prime rents in Berlin and Munich Strong tech-related demand is set to support faster growth in prime rents in Munich and Berlin than the other main German markets while the AI boom persists. However, we expect rent growth to ease... 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (August 2026) Economic growth has generally held up well since the start of the year, albeit with a divergence that is likely to persist in the coming quarters. Poland is likely to be an outperformer while Romania... 25th August 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (August 2026) Germany’s August Ifo survey and detailed Q2 GDP release added to evidence of surprising economic resilience and support the case for near-term policy tightening by the ECB. 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond markets and underlying inflation under control? Since the Iran war began, the sell-off in euro-zone government bond markets has been greatest in countries with high and/or rising public debt. We forecast yields across the currency union to fall... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Indirect inflation effects will take time to unfold The absence so far of first-round indirect energy effects on inflation tells us little about the extent of the rise in inflation to come. But the latest evidence provides a bit more reassurance that... 21st August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s tax proposals, climate disruptions persist Poland's latest income and corporate tax proposals reduce the risk of a further widening of the budget deficit next year, but the government is still avoiding the tougher task of tackling a... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Aug. 2026) August’s flash PMI figures suggest that the economy shrugged off the latest rebound in energy prices despite inflationary pressures staying elevated. We still think the Bank of England will hold its... 21st August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August 2026) The euro-zone’s Composite PMI was broadly unchanged in August and, together with the continued fall in the input and output price indices, suggests that the euro-zone economy is continuing to shrug... 21st August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jul. 2026) July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position and highlight the limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile, the weakness in retail sales volumes... 21st August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising EV exports won’t offset falling ICE sales The euro-zone’s exports of cars have fallen dramatically since 2017. This loss is driven by internal combustion engine vehicles, whereas exports of electric vehicles (EVs) are rising rapidly. Even if... 20th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2026) Property markets were relatively unaffected by the Iran war in Q2, with investment activity strengthening and property yields rising only modestly. Assuming the Strait of Hormuz is not disrupted for a... 20th August 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Franc to rally when AI bubble bursts The bursting of the AI bubble that we suspect will happen next year, and the resulting pick-up in safe-haven demand, would most likely cause the franc to appreciate against the euro. 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
