Europe Commercial Property Update Paris office values to take the hardest hit from higher rates Paris office values are set to fall by almost 10% peak-to-trough – the largest decline in the euro-zone – as weakening prime rental growth combines with sharper rises in yields than in other markets. 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The outlook continues to darken for the euro Euro-zone spreads and the euro have stabilised over the past couple of days and plenty of bad news on French politics now appears priced in. That said, it is hard to make an optimistic case for the... 13th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the ECB intervene in bond markets? Bond markets are a long way from needing ECB intervention – in the recent past, policymakers have only got twitchy when 10-year sovereign spreads were around 250bp. If spreads approached those levels... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Will the UK Budget prompt a bond market backlash? Our base case is that the Chancellor will not loosen fiscal policy by much at the Budget on 28th October, preventing a bond market backlash. But his margin for error is small, and a loss of investor... 13th October 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Recovery delayed by higher mortgage rates The upward revisions to our Bank Rate and gilt yield forecasts due to the ongoing energy price shock suggest higher mortgage rates will remain a drag on housing for longer. Our forecast is for house... 13th October 2026 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU-China hybrid deal a potential blueprint for future The EU-China deal on plug-in hybrids is another step to strengthen EU trade defences and also offers a blueprint for future deals, but it is still consistent with the EU moving in a targeted and... 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget 2026 Preview - Unfinished fiscal business We think the Chancellor, John Healey, will opt for a compromise Budget on Wednesday 28th October, with limited implications for the economy and the markets. But this just delays the difficult... 12th October 2026 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Weekly When should Burnham call a general election? To the extent that the economy matters in determining the timing of general elections and their result, our economic forecasts and the government's tax and spending plans imply that 2028 looks like a... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Glapinski holding out … but rate hikes coming soon Governor Glapinski’s post-meeting press conference this week shifted in a more hawkish direction and we now think that some modest tightening of monetary policy (50bp in total) will be delivered in... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly G7’s oil plans are more peashooter than bazooka While the recent joint statement by the G7 succeeded in taking oil product export bans off the table for now , it stopped short of providing an additional boost to global petroleum supplies over and... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Le Pen the fiscal hawk? Merz the China hawk? Marine Le Pen's proposals this week to slash France's budget deficit are unlikely to have done much to bolster her fiscal credentials. Meanwhile, the joint letter by Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Asia’s boom comes with commodity risks This week we participated in an Emerging Markets Forum in Monaco, with a special focus on Central Asia. The key takeaway is that the growth outlook in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains strong and... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China could weather tougher EU trade restrictions Even a sharp escalation in EU trade restrictions would have only a small impact on China’s economy. We estimate that an additional 20%-pt tariff on Chinese imports across strategically important... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s upcoming budget will test the bond rally Hungary’s government will announce its long-awaited fiscal review this month, and we expect a budget deficit projection around 5.5% of GDP for 2027, down from a shortfall of more than 7.0% this year... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chart Pack (October 2026) Higher interest rates are set to drag on global property values in the coming year, especially in lower-yielding euro-zone and APAC. US property values are likely to be most resilient this year but we... 8th October 2026 · 0 mins read
