Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: from sweet spot to tough spot? The Russian economy is in a sweet spot for now: inflation is at record lows and growth is strong. But we doubt that this will last. Indeed, the authorities are likely to find themselves in an awkward... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) The Nationwide house price index recorded its largest drop in two years in March, suggesting that our forecast of a 5% drop during 2012 remains on track. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the external sector rescue the recovery? There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Jump in oil prices is a net benefit for Latin America Latin America is one of the few regions to have benefitted from the $25pb jump in oil prices over the past six months or so: higher prices provide a prop to regional growth and, for now at least, the... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Close to the limit? Following the apparent success of the ECB’s recent LTROs, the Governing Council meeting on April 4th is unlikely to produce any further significant policy measures. While acknowledging the ECB’s duty... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit crunch has passed in US but not in the euro-zone Credit growth and lending conditions are improving gradually in the US but are still extremely weak in the euro-zone. This divergence looks likely to continue or widen in the coming months... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities shouldn't bank on more support from the Fed The positive reaction in commodity markets to Fed Chairman Bernanke's seemingly dovish speech on Monday has already begun to fade, which makes sense to us. What's more, any additional bond buying is... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Explaining our forecasts for the Gulf economies We think that GDP growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries could fall to around 3.8% in 2012, down from 7.2% last year (and lower than most analysts expect). Admittedly, healthy balance... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Feb.) The 2.2% m/m increase in February's durable goods orders was well below the 3.0% consensus forecast and our own even higher 5.5% forecast, principally because of an inexplicably small 6.0% rebound in... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is government spending falling? Recent claims that, despite the fiscal squeeze, government spending is still rising in real terms have revived the debate about whether the spending plans are actually as tough as they look. But while... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest monetary data have confirmed that the ECB’s generous lending is boosting the broad money supply and perhaps even stimulating government bond purchases. But, for now at least, lending to... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The downward revision to GDP in Q4 is not too worrying given that the economic news has improved since then. However, we doubt that the recent pick-up in the recovery will last. 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Market rally loses its shine The rally in financial markets since the start of the year has lost some steam in recent weeks. Most stock markets have fallen by around 2-3% since the start of the month and most currencies lost a... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No need to worry about low-end exports losing market share China’s share of the world’s low-end exports has started to fall. This reflects a shift by Chinese producers into sectors where margins are higher rather than a failure to compete. China’s export... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who in Asia will benefit from rising labour costs in China? After years of strong growth, China’s textile and apparel exports are now losing market share abroad. Indeed, high and rising labour costs in China mean the migration of low-end manufacturing out of... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
