Latin America Economics Update Mexican survey data strong, but rates could still fall this year The latest survey data suggest that the Mexican economy may have expanded by an impressive 1.2% q/q in Q1. Even so, with the risks to growth and inflation to the downside, policymakers have recently... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Mar.) In March, the commercial property component of the CIPS/Markit construction PMI rose to its highest level in four and a half years. But with wider economic conditions more likely to worsen than... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Mar.) PMI data show that, in spite of a modest increase in the whole-economy index, activity in the UAE’s non-oil private sector remains weak. The bright spot however is the employment component, which... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Mar.) Although Saudi Arabia’s headline PMI index fell in March, it is still consistent with strong growth in the non-oil private sector. However, the weak employment reading suggests that the government’s... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage credit conditions tighten again Given that the stamp duty-driven boost to activity seems to have had little material impact on house prices, its reversal is not obviously a cause for concern. But the same cannot be said of the... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt takes a turn for the worse Another month, another fall in Egypt’s foreign currency reserves. Admittedly, the pace of decline appears to be easing. But with rising tensions between the interim government, the Muslim Brotherhood... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global PMI suggests manufacturing recovery lacklustre Purchasing managers’ surveys for March suggest the recovery in global manufacturing may be faltering and remains heavily dependent on growth in the US. 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Better PMI won’t prompt ceasefire in Brazil’s “currency war” The manufacturing PMI survey suggests that after a torrid 2011, Brazilian industry stabilised in the first quarter of this year. But in truth the link between the manufacturing PMI and actual output... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufact'ng (Mar.) & Const'n Spending (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index in March leaves it consistent with annualised GDP growth of around 2.5%, which is in line with our estimate for the first quarter. 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update As good as it gets for German retail rents? February’s fall in German retail sales volumes served as a timely reminder that the strong recovery in retail rents in the euro-zone’s largest economy cannot be taken for granted. Nevertheless, while... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Central London office rents remain on track to rise this year Positive results from the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services survey point to a modest rise in City and West End office rental values in 2012. But the improvement in financial services firms’ sentiment... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Net exports boost Turkish growth The deceleration of the Turkish economy in Q4 was not as bad as we had feared. However, the strength of net exports masked a much sharper slowdown in domestic demand – a process which has much further... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Divisions grow on the MPC The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) appears increasingly divided between those members who want to provide the economy with more stimulus and those who think that they have now done enough. For now... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stagnant Tankan highlights risk of relapse in Japan The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey showed business conditions in Japan remained lacklustre in Q1 despite some recent improvements in the monthly data. Respondents forecast only a marginal... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Manufacturing still soft despite strong official PMI The divergence between China’s two manufacturing PMIs for March, released over the weekend, largely reflects the seasonal strength and perhaps a bias towards larger firms in the official index. On... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
