UK Economics Chart Pack A robust finish to Q1 The UK economy appears to have avoided a slide back into recession, if the activity surveys for the first quarter are to be believed. Indeed, the economic recovery appears to have gathered a bit of... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Policy paralysis to continue in India Events over the past year have taken the shine off India’s economy as the growth rate has slowed, reform efforts have been blocked and slow and opaque decision-making has undermined investor... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) It’s too early to conclude that March’s increase in mortgage applications for home purchase is the start of an upward trend. But the sharp rise in average loan size certainly seems consistent with an... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Mar.) The improvement in March’s CIPS report on services added to the evidence that the overall economy expanded in Q1 and has therefore avoided a technical recession. But we would not conclude that the... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Consumer price inflation may have edged up in March, but this would still largely reflect volatility around Chinese New Year. The recent increase in gasoline prices should have little impact on the... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) The sharp rise in the Halifax house price index in March simply reverses the dip seen since last July. Therefore, it does little to alter the picture of a housing market that remains very weak. 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s next for sugar? The price of sugar has strengthened recently due to concerns over harvests in Brazil, the world’s largest producer. The consensus is for prices to continue rising from the current level of 23.4 cents... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Inflation still poised to decline Although gasoline prices have risen over the last few months, the year-on-year rate of gasoline inflation is still set to fall over the next few months. Given that other energy and non-energy... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack A month of two halves for Treasuries The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by more than 20bp in March. The catalysts for a significant sell-off in the first half of the month were another encouraging employment report, reassuring results... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Price controls are not the answer to Venezuelan inflation On the face of it, news that Venezuelan inflation is falling seems to support President Chavez’s claims that price controls will tame inflation. In reality, though, they are not the long-term solution... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How would a hard landing in China affect Australia? In the event of a hard landing in China, Australia would suffer a sharp fall in exports to its biggest trading partner. Global commodity prices would tumble given China’s importance for commodity... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update March PMIs point to continued manufacturing recovery March PMIs for Asia suggested that a pick-up in trade is giving a boost to the region’s manufacturers. However, problems in the euro zone mean that the improvement could be short-lived. 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil prices peaking? The support to commodity prices from the general improvement in investor confidence, which had been fostered earlier in the first quarter by better economic data from the US and China and the ECB’s... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack LTRO euphoria starting to fade Recent news on the euro-zone economy has dampened hopes that that the ECB’s longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) in December and February had largely solved the euro-zone’s economic and fiscal... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: downside risk to steel prices adds to headwinds The relatively modest drop in steel prices that we expect later this year would not be a game-changer for Ukraine, but it would exacerbate growing strains in the balance of payments and public... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
