Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) February’s rise in euro-zone unemployment confirmed that the resilience of the German labour market is doing little to drag up the average. With high inflation and fiscal tightening adding to the... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Mar.) The improvement in March’s CIPS report on manufacturing suggested that the industrial recovery still has some momentum. But there were also signs that manufacturing output may struggle to grow in the... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region stabilising, but Q1 growth still lacklustre The manufacturing PMIs for March add to recent data suggesting that, while conditions in Emerging Europe are slowly improving, growth in Q1 of this year was still pretty lacklustre. The sharp jump in... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fiscal austerity will dampen GDP growth this year Fiscal austerity measures across various levels of government will dampen economic growth this year. While the federal government's 2012 budget will have a relatively minor impact, the fiscal... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bigger firewall is a small step forward The reported plans to increase the size of the euro-zone bail-out fund - hopefully to be agreed at today’s (Friday’s) Eurogroup meeting - provide some encouragement that the policymakers have... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No need to fret about higher Treasury yields Even a larger and longer-lasting rise in 10-year Treasury yields than the one seen in recent weeks is unlikely to derail the economic recovery. Just as tight credit conditions meant that the previous... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia - losing its shine? Indonesia’s stock market and currency have been among the worst performing assets in Asia so far this year. The poor performance reflects worries over proposed cuts to fuel subsidies, which will... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Raising the consumption tax: a small step forward The government has finally succeeded in submitting a bill to parliament to increase the consumption tax. This is has been a long time coming and is an important step forward in putting the public... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can consumers continue to support growth? The breakdown of Q4 GDP showed that the greatest support to the economy at the end of last year came from consumer spending. However, the good news on the consumer sector last week was largely... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus What will bring oil prices down? The price of Brent has remained close to $125 per barrel despite verbal intervention from Saudi Arabia and the threat of an early release of official stocks led by the US. We are therefore nudging up... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) January's 0.1% m/m increase in monthly GDP and upward revision to the final month's growth of last year supports our view that Canada's economy grew more strongly this quarter. Our calculations... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's happening to global growth? Financial markets have staged an impressive rally since late-2011 but world growth has probably not yet accelerated. Looking forward, we expect a gradual recovery in most major economies during the... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Principal reductions useful, but no silver bullet Principal reductions on mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would herald a policy initiative that directly addresses one of the biggest problems facing the housing market. It won’t solve the... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Will Peña Nieto push through reforms? The Mexican presidential election race formally begins today and the latest polls suggest that the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto is likely to triumph in July’s vote. But while Mr. Peña Nieto has identified... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Retail Sales (Mar./Feb.) March’s euro-zone CPI inflation data confirmed that stubbornly high inflation is adding to the squeeze on households’ purchasing power from rising unemployment and fiscal tightening. 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
