Europe Commercial Property Update Still no sign of a recovery in Budapest office rental values 2011 was a record-breaking year for take-up in the Budapest office market. Yet this failed to drive any form of recovery in office rents. Unfortunately, with employment set to fall and occupier... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish retail sales data overstate consumer demand Poland is one of the few countries in Europe where consumer spending has made a significant positive contribution to growth in recent years. However, we think that actual retail sales may be growing... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Are Australian banks vulnerable to a global financial crisis? Australia stands out as one of the economies in Asia that might be most vulnerable to a renewed global banking crisis. Its high external debt and current account deficit make it reliant on foreign... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s rise in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator suggested that the economy remains resilient. But the increase was the smallest for some time and other business surveys paint a less upbeat... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy not recovering yet The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy slowed in the first two months of the year after a short rebound in December. 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly High oil prices will not lift inflation The pick-up in oil prices in recent weeks has caused some to fear that inflation in Asia will soon rise sharply. These fears are over-blown. Even if oil prices stayed at current levels, inflation... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A brief look at Japan’s small business surveys Analysis of conditions for small and medium sized enterprises tends to be overlooked in favour of conditions for large manufacturers despite the importance of the sector to the economy. In this Weekly... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stronger GDP growth expected this quarter Our calculations suggest that Canada's economy, after growing by 1.8% annualised in the fourth quarter of last year, will grow this quarter by 2.5%. The main reason for this pick-up in economic growth... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Enormous fiscal squeeze still lies ahead The furore over the so-called “granny tax” denominated the media’s post-mortem of the Budget, but the big picture is simply that little changed on Wednesday. 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Should US Treasuries fear the eventual onset of higher rates? 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Do rising equity prices offset higher gas prices? Households are currently being subjected to a number of diverse and often opposing economic forces, but most will cancel each other out and we still anticipate consumption growth of just above 2% this... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly LTRO sparkle starting to fade Last week brought the strongest signs yet that the post-LTRO bout of optimism is starting to wear off. Hopes that the ECB’s operations would drive a pick-up in the euro-zone economy were dealt a blow... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The further fall in new home sales in February was probably driven by the unwinding of the boost to sales activity from the recent unseasonably warm weather. We expect continued employment growth and... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) February's rise in the official core inflation figure, to 2.3% from 2.1%, will possibly elicit talk of higher interest rates to come. Considering the increasing slack in labour markets and moderate... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Feb.) Today’s Land Registry data highlight both the strength of house prices in London as well as their weakness in the North East. That divergence might well increase further this year, but we remain... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: New BCRA Charter is a licence to print money The latest changes to Argentina’s Central Bank Charter will pave the way for further monetisation of a deteriorating fiscal balance. As such, any remaining hopes that the Fernández government is about... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
