UK Commercial Property Data Response Institutional Investment in Property (Q4) Official data show that institutions made net purchases of property in Q4. This contrasts starkly with the net sales recorded by Property Archive. But we suspect that this may just reflect timing... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Feb.) February’s drop in mortgage approvals is likely to reflect a combination of factors - the looming end of the stamp duty holiday, weak consumer confidence and, potentially, a more cautious mood among... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Future monetary tightening and the prospects for Treasuries There have been seven major monetary policy tightening cycles in the US since the early 1970s. If these are a useful guide, the ten year Treasury yield will start to rise well before the first... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Hungary will opt for default We suspect that Hungary will ultimately turn to some form of default as a way out of its current debt problems. The alternative is further austerity – and while we expect Hungary to pursue this path... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil’s “currency war”? Brazil’s so-called “currency war” has lost a little of its momentum in recent days, as the real – like most EM currencies – has weakened. This provides an ideal opportunity to take stock of the recent... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand grinding out a moderate recovery Today’s GDP data show that New Zealand’s economy grew at a sluggish pace in Q4. Growth is likely to be weak in the near term as the temporary boost from the Rugby World Cup unwinds, but post... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strong Q4 in Colombia, but can it last? Following bumper growth in Colombia last year and a strong start to this year, concerns about overheating are likely to resurface. We remain fundamentally upbeat on the economy and expect a soft... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold, awaiting IMF deal Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) kept interests rates on hold today. And although it looks like the CBE is taking small steps towards easing policy, much now hinges on whether an IMF deal can be agreed. If... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are things starting to look up for the Copenhagen retail market? Recent macroeconomic indicators from Denmark might raise hopes that the outlook for Copenhagen retail rental values has improved significantly. But with the impact of past falls in household spending... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumer recovery underway, but looking fragile The consumer recovery appears to have picked up pace around the turn of the year, although the softening in the latest measures of high street spending suggest that the recovery is still on fragile... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus US will continue to outperform There are reasons to believe that over the next two years the US will perform better than the other major economies. This would build on the trend of the last four years that has seen a disappointing... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s 0.5% m/m increase in retail sales, which was mainly due to sharply higher new vehicle sales, was much weaker than the 2.0% increase we had estimated. The decline in spending elsewhere, which... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q4) The Irish GDP figures for Q4 revealed that the euro-zone’s fastest growing economy in the first half of 2011 fell back into recession in the second half. Ireland still remains in a better position... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Net exports on course to boost Q1 GDP Japan’s export figures saw a marked improvement in February amid signs of recovery in the global economy. As things stand, net exports could boost Q1 GDP by up to 0.4%, helping the economy return to... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Today’s downbeat flash PMI figures suggest that conditions in China’s manufacturing sector are still weak. However, fears about a hard landing look overdone. 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
