Latin America Economics Update Uruguayan rates on hold as economy begins to cool Uruguay’s Central Bank (BCU) kept interest rates at 8.75% last night but maintained a hawkish tone on inflation. Based on our outlook for growth to slow by more than most anticipate this year... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Budget austerity will constrain economic growth Despite an already modest deficit, the new federal budget includes plans to forge ahead with austerity measures that are likely to restrain economic growth. We doubt that the economy will perform as... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update It could end in tears for Saudi stocks Given the positive outlook for the economy, relative political stability and fresh hopes that the stock market will open to foreign investors this year, Saudi equities have soared in the first quarter... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate will decline more gradually Our econometric model, which takes into account a wide range of indicators, suggests that payroll employment rose by around 200,000 in March. That would be the fourth monthly increase of 200,000 or... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Recent news from Spain suggests that the Government may be falling further behind its fiscal targets, but the other troubled euro-zone governments have made a better start to the year. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets pause for breath The rebound in financial markets across Latin America since the start of the year has lost some momentum in recent weeks. Having rallied by 10% or so in the first two months of this year, most of the... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Retail sales jump flattered by temporary factors The surprisingly strong rise in Japanese retail sales in February largely reflects a number of temporary factors, including an extra shopping day due to the leap year and earthquake-related insurance... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania cuts rates, Czechs on hold until inflation falls The National Bank of Romania (NBR) cut interest rates today amid concerns that the economy is on the cusp of a new recession. We expect one further cut this year, but the threat of financial contagion... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What difference would a wider RMB trading band make? The next major reform in China’s exchange rate policy is likely to be a widening of the renminbi’s daily trading band with the dollar. In this month’s China Watch, we consider the implications of such... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The continued weakness of the broad money and lending figures supports our view that the Monetary Policy Committee will yet have to provide the economy with even more stimulus. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) March’s EC business and consumer survey echoed other indicators in suggesting that what “recovery” there was in the euro-zone economy has already ground to a halt. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending & Credit Conditions (Feb/Q1) February’s sharp drop in mortgage approvals was no doubt partly driven by the end of the stamp duty holiday last weekend. But the fact that banks tightened credit scoring criteria in the first quarter... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Property lending (Feb.) and Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) The latest net lending data and Q1’s Credit Conditions survey confirm that the commercial property funding environment remains very difficult. Further negative net lending flows look more likely than... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Approvals, M4, Credit Conditions & Productivity The overall message from today’s data was that weak bank lending is likely to remain a significant constraint on the economic recovery. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China's move up the value chain a threat to Asian economies? As China develops, its manufacturing firms are moving into higher-value sectors. While this is a boon for low-wage Asian economies that represent a good alternative for low-end producers... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
