A robust finish to Q1

The UK economy appears to have avoided a slide back into recession, if the activity surveys for the first quarter are to be believed. Indeed, the economic recovery appears to have gathered a bit of momentum in March. Nonetheless, the persistence of high oil prices could soon start to slow GDP growth. The news on household spending has also weakened considerably over the last month, following a brief period of resilience. Meanwhile, the recent pick-up in government bond yields in the more indebted of the euro-zone economies is a timely reminder that a more major re-intensification of the region’s debt crisis is still a key downside risk to the UK’s growth outlook.