Back into recession in Q1

The UK returned to recession in Q1, making this the weakest peacetime recovery in a century. Reasonably positive activity surveys for the first quarter raise some doubts about the ONS’s Q1 estimate, but more recent survey evidence from April has disappointed. And it would take an unusually large revision to the official figures to change the big picture. We still expect GDP to shrink over 2012 as a whole.

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