Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker global economy to expose local vulnerabilities Relative to the rest of the world, at least, the immediate outlook for Latin America remains good. Nonetheless, vulnerabilities are starting to emerge in a number of the region’s economies, which are... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s euro-zone industrial production data confirm the weak underlying health of the sector and support the view that the outlook for the wider economy remains pretty bleak. 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will the Reserve Bank‘s support for the rupee succeed? We doubt that the Reserve Bank of India’s recent efforts to prop up the rupee will succeed. However, this may be a good thing, as India would benefit from a more competitive currency. 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Required reserve ratio cut not enough to trigger rebound This weekend’s policy move by the People’s Bank is likely to be the precursor to a more explicitly pro-growth stance from China’s government. April’s awful data suggest that officials so far this year... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Does the Chiang Mai bailout fund matter? Fearing that the euro-zone crisis could lead to a sharp outflow of capital from Asia, policymakers have sought to strengthen the regional financial safety net. However, Asia is far less vulnerable to... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate expectations still too high The recent hiking of market interest rate forecasts, which was prompted by the Bank of Canada's more hawkish policy statement a few weeks ago, looks increasingly like an over-reaction. While rate... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling gasoline prices to support the recovery At least some of the recent easing in economic growth is due to the surge in gasoline prices earlier in the year. The most recent fall in gasoline prices should therefore prevent a more sustained or... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has Greece already crossed the Rubicon? Political deadlock in Greece has reignited fears it could be on cusp of a euro-zone exit. The most likely outcome of another election is a victory for the pro-bail-out New Democracy and PASOK parties... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report to show MPC in wait and see mode The inflation profile in Wednesday's Inflation Report probably won’t look much different from February’s Report. This would appear to support the consensus expectation that the QE programme is now as... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Safe haven demand to lift yen further In the last week, the yen has again broken through 80 against the dollar, taking the currency to its strongest level since February. The yen has strengthened despite the recent increase in the ceiling... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong falters in Q1 Hong Kong’s economy had a weak start to the year, expanding in Q1 at the same tepid pace as in Q4 and confounding hopes that growth would accelerate. We think growth will probably pick up over the... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's surprising 58,200 gain in employment, which follows an almost equally impressive gain in the prior month (see chart), is welcomed news given the unusually weak figures that preceded it... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s rebalancing more difficult from now on Today’s balance of payments data from Turkey show that the current account deficit continued to narrow in March. It now looks like the economy is around half way through the rebalancing needed to... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian central bank is playing a waiting game Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 3% today, as expected. There have been signs of a slowdown in the economy in early 2012, and low inflation gives BNM room to cut. We still... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Survey (Q1) The latest RICS data suggest that developers are still reasonably confident about the near-term prospects for commercial property occupier markets. However, with the economy now back in recession, we... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
