Commodities Update What would a Greek euro exit mean for commodities? Our central forecasts for industrial commodity prices already reflect some of the potential fall-out from a Greek euro exit. In particular, the economic and financial uncertainty is one of several... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower petrol prices to add some fuel to consumer recovery The recent fall in oil prices should, if maintained, bring petrol prices down by enough to boost consumers’ annual disposable incomes by about 0.2%. However, this will not be enough to stop real pay... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Contagion is still the key danger The direct economic and financial effects of a Greek exit from the euro-zone need not be catastrophic. The key question remains whether the policymakers can prevent contagion effects from prompting a... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Early signs of overheating in Saudi Arabia A huge fiscal stimulus by the Saudi government ensured that the country avoided the unrest that swept the region last year and drove growth rates in the non-oil economy to record highs. However, the... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Mar.) March’s trade figures showed some improvement, although the external sector still looks likely to have dragged on GDP growth in the first quarter overall. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data just the tip of the iceberg The raft of Q1 GDP data released today show that output in large parts of Emerging Europe was contracting even before the most recent escalation of the euro-crisis. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & German ZEW (May) The provisional Q1 euro-zone GDP figures revealed that the economy has narrowly avoided a technical recession – temporarily. But the region remains worryingly reliant on growth in Germany and a... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would a Grexit mean for the UK? The UK has few direct exposures to Greece. However, if Greece defaults on its debt, and perhaps leaves the euro-zone, the UK would still stand to suffer indirectly from the fallout. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) April’s consumer confidence survey, released today, shows that sentiment edged lower last month suggesting the recovery in sentiment may have now stalled. With signs of the recovery slowing in Q2 and... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fears over Greece’s future in the euro-zone continue to grow 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update When will equities triumph over bonds again? US government bonds have fared much better than the US stock market since the beginning of this century. However, this trend is probably nearing an end. Admittedly, we do not expect equities to start... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Canada's outperformance may not last much longer Canada's stronger economic performance over the last few years is largely explained by its stable banking sector, the continued boom in its housing market and, to a much lesser extent, buoyant... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Austerity without growth won’t work for Slovenia Slovenia’s debt problems are not as severe as those of other Southern European economies, but its public debt is nonetheless on an unsustainable footing. Moreover, given the backdrop of private sector... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Relapse into recession will extend capital value falls There have been no material changes to the outlook for the UK economy since the previous Analyst and with the double dip in capital values that we have been expecting now evident, we have not altered... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery in sight, but more pain to come first Rising real pay should kick-start a slow recovery in consumer spending next year. But first further falls in spending could lie ahead. 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Higher German inflation won’t rescue the periphery Suggestions that higher German inflation will allow the euro-zone’s peripheral economies to regain lost competitiveness look hopelessly optimistic. Those countries still face deep and prolonged wage... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
