Bank of Japan Watch Policy Board to take stock and reassess its options The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meeting next week is likely to be uneventful in so far as we are don’t expect to see any change in the asset purchase program. Nonetheless, it may still be important... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers have little room for manoeuvre This week’s dismal first quarter GDP data will sharpen the debate over whether policymakers in Emerging Europe should pursue austerity or focus on growth. But in reality, while there is scope for one... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How has Egypt’s economy shaped up in Q1? Monthly activity data suggest that the Egyptian economy may have grown by up to 10% y/y in Q1. But this will have been helped by favourable base effects, given the almost 5% y/y contraction in output... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will a euro-zone break-up involve? Our view that the euro-zone needs to break up has become more widely accepted, but many commentators still argue that, in practical terms, it simply can’t happen. In this Focus, we outline the... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What’s behind the drop in housing starts? It is easy to turn the Greek fiscal crisis into a scapegoat for any piece of bad news. But it does seem plausible that, by triggering a rise in mortgage interest rates and tighter credit conditions... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy well placed to weather external shocks Mexican Q1 GDP growth was not only stronger than expected, but the drivers of the increase were broad-based. Although the economy may lose some of its steam over the coming quarters, it is well placed... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will falling bank deposits force Greece out? The recent rapid decline in Greek bank deposits underlines our warnings that it could be pressures on the banking system which provide the primary trigger for some form of euro-zone break-up. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery looks to be on firmer ground The US recovery looks to be on firmer ground, despite the mounting crisis in the euro-zone. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2013. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery in Japan too dependent on government support The rebound in Japan’s Q1 GDP was a welcome bolt of good news. Unfortunately it is also likely to mark the high point of the year as we expect growth will slow in the coming quarters. The recovery is... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Could the Olympic flame reignite the recovery? As the Olympic torch arrives in Britain, hopes are building that Greece’s greatest cultural legacy could help to offset some of the adverse impact of its current debt crisis on the UK economy. However... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From currency wars to interest rate wars Not content with waging a “currency war” against the rest of the world, Brazil’s government is now doing battle with its own banks over the high interest rates charged on loans to consumers and... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Just how hard would a Greek exit hit the ECB? One often advanced reason why Greece and other countries simply could not leave the euro-zone is the potential damage to the institution at the core of the currency union, the European Central Bank... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack April disappointment The data for April were appalling. Economic activity was much weaker than expected across a wide swath of the economy, with imports, industrial output and fiscal revenue hit particularly hard... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal still next in line? Domestically, Portugal’s economy suffers from a broader range of factors dragging on medium-term growth prospects than its peripheral European peers. And externally, an imminent euro-zone exit by... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America currencies battered by flight to safety Renewed fears about the future of the euro-zone have sparked a retreat from all risky assets in recent days, and Latin American currencies have been no exception. For now, the risks remain skewed to... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
