Europe Economics Update Euro-bonds can't keep the euro-zone together Calls for jointly issued “euro-bonds” are growing louder again. But they are unlikely to be implemented quickly or effectively enough to prevent some form of euro-zone fragmentation. 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Apr.) Inflation resumed its downward trend in April. The fall gives the MPC a bit more leeway to undertake further quantitative easing to cushion the UK economy from the turmoil in the euro-zone. 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What should we expect from first quarter GDP in Brazil? We think that first quarter GDP growth in Brazil will be somewhat stronger than the monthly economic activity indicator produced by the central bank (BCB) suggests. But there is no sign yet of a much... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Government support propping up the economy The Japanese economy managed to rebound in the first quarter, as governmentsupported spending ensured a return to GDP growth. The eco-car subsidy helped drive consumer spending, and public investment... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update GOEF liquidations dampen medium-term European property outlook In a worst case scenario, over the next five years, some €36bn worth of European property assets could be liquidated by German open-ended property funds (GOEFs). Our downbeat views on the European... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: April data still strong, but a slowdown imminent The raft of activity data released today showed that the Russian economy made a decent start to Q2, with consumers remaining the main engine of growth. Meanwhile, the new cabinet, also announced today... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus The housing recovery will last the course The sheer extent of undervaluation in the housing market, combined with the prospect of a sustained if modest economic and labour market improvement, should ensure that the current, gradual housing... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Treasuries the real deal? The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fleetingly dipped below 1.7% last week – its lowest level on record. We do not expect to witness a major sell-off any time soon – our end-2012 and end-2013 forecasts... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Zigzag year to mask weak underlying trend Mervyn King characterised 2012 as a “zigzag year”. Output will certainly bounce around over the next few quarters, but we expect the underlying trend to be flat to slightly down. 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy disappoints in Q1 The pick-up in Egypt’s GDP growth from 0.4% y/y in Q4 to 5.2% y/y in Q1 was flattered by favourable base effects. Indeed, on a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate that output contracted by 1.4% q/q... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The consequences of a euro-zone break-up Markets have come around to our long-held view that some form of euro-zone break-up is likely, but opinion remains divided on the likely economic and financial fall-out. While even a limited and well... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Easing Iran tensions to undermine oil prices further Concerns about the crisis in the euro-zone, fears of a “hard landing” in China and weaker data in the US have displaced tensions with Iran as the main driver of global oil prices. Nonetheless, a... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Labour's share of income to continue trending lower Labour's share of income has been on a downward structural trend since the 1980s, resulting from the decline in labour's bargaining power, globalisation and technological progress. Not only will that... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand posts V-shaped recovery, but policy loosening still likely Today’s Q1 GDP data show that Thailand’s economy bounced back strongly from the flood-induced slump in Q4, as expected. Growth will inevitably slow sharply now that the easy gains have been achieved... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Drop in household wealth another drag on spending The recent fall in household wealth highlights one key way in which consumers are already suffering from the impact of the Greek debt crisis. A sustained recovery in real household spending continues... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
