Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak zloty a cause for concern, but shouldn’t justify rate hikes The recent sell-off in the zloty will make it harder for the Polish government to keep public debt from breaching constitutionally mandated ceilings. In the extreme, policymakers face the risk of... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's stimulus dilemma China’s policymakers have the ability to shore up economic growth in the short-term. But in doing so, they will increase the chances that the economy will experience a sharper slump two or three years... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falling PMIs show industrial demand ailing The flash manufacturing PMIs for both China and the euro-zone fell in May. Despite the prospect of some near-term support from policy easing in China, industrial commodity prices are likely to fall... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Apr.) Fears of further rises in mortgage interest rates appear to have prompted a rise in the number of households seeking to remortgage in May. But those same fears are doubtless contributing to the low... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q1) Initial hopes that the drop in GDP in Q1 might be revised away have been quickly disappointed, with the 0.2% fall today revised to a bigger 0.3% drop. The figure could yet be revised back up in the... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Composite PMI & German Ifo Survey (May) May’s business surveys confirmed the picture of falling economic activity in the euro-zone as a whole and suggest that the downturn has now really hit Germany. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) China’s flash manufacturing PMI for May was, again, very weak. But a turnaround may not be far away, given the recent shift in policy stance. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Belgium v the Netherlands: where is the rental value outlook best? For now, the Belgian economy is clearly outperforming its struggling neighbour, the Netherlands. But we expect both to contract this year and next, by a total of between 3% and 4%. Based on the... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery standing firm So far there is little evidence that the recent softening in economic growth is developing into a more significant slowdown. The leading index and a weighted average of the two ISM activity indices... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How would break-up of the euro affect the rest of the world? A partial break-up of the euro-zone, with the weakest economies leaving and the core holding together, could be part of the solution to Europe’s problems, rather than the disaster that many assume. As... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stimulus set to fuel recovery We believe that the stimulus efforts unveiled in the last few days will be sufficient to drive an economic recovery in the second half of 2012 but at the cost of further entrenching China’s economic... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Egypt’s presidential elections Today marks the first day in Egypt’s presidential elections with the opinion polls and expatriate votes showing contradictory results. Regardless of who wins, two outstanding issues remain from an... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint slump to trigger renewed talk of IMF deal The latest slump in the Hungarian forint has taken the currency to below 300/€ – the rate that, on past form at least, has triggered a response from the authorities. This time around, the response... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) April’s 3.3% m/m rise in new home sales adds to the impression that homebuilders are starting to feel some of the benefits of improving housing market activity. Moreover, the rising proportion of new... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What more can the ECB do to help? The renewed escalation of the euro-zone crisis has prompted calls for the European Central Bank to take more action. But whilst the ECB has scope to provide more support without taking unacceptable... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
