US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1) The good news is that the number of homeowners who are delinquent on their mortgage continued to fall in the first quarter. But that didn’t change the big picture that the large overhang of homeowners... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (May) According to the latest figures, differences in regional economic growth rates have begun to narrow. Meanwhile, there are signs that London’s economic recovery is starting to be undermined by emerging... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Mar.) March's 1.9% m/m increase in manufacturing sales volumes supports our view that monthly GDP, after declining by 0.2% m/m in February, rebounded by at least 0.3% m/m the next month. Until we see the... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) The 2.6% m/m rise in housing starts in April, alongside the big upward revisions to earlier data, supports our view that housing is in recovery mode. Driven in particular by the multi-family sector... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Time running out for Egypt to secure IMF deal Recent comments from Egypt’s Finance Minister suggest that the country could receive help from the IMF next month. But with the external environment deteriorating sharply over the past few weeks... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) May’s Bank of England Inflation Report struck a gloomy tone, suggesting that sticky inflation is preventing the MPC from doing anything to offset the deterioration in the growth outlook. However, we... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic slowdown triggers fall in capital values The euro-zone economy narrowly avoided falling back into a technical recession in Q1. But GDP merely stagnated and survey evidence point to renewed falls to come. In any event, the economic slowdown... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr.) Labour market activity is still holding up surprisingly well. But pay growth remains exceptionally weak and we expect the return to recession to weigh on the jobs figures before long. 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece: After the election A victory for Greece’s anti-bail-out parties in the June election would not necessarily mark the end of the bail-out deal. But any agreement which is reached between the Government and the troika is... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for euro-zone equities? The crisis in the euro-zone has exacted a heavy toll on regional stock markets. The sharp falls in equity prices have driven valuations down to attractive levels in many Member States, both relative... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Euro-zone equities fall further as second Greek election beckons 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why and how will the euro-zone break up? Recent developments in the euro-zone have supported our view that a limited form of break-up will commence this year with the exit of Greece. But there are clear risks of a bigger break-up. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Greek exit risks revisited With a few notable exceptions, Emerging Europe’s direct exposure to Greece is small. But the contagion from a disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone would have disastrous consequences for the region... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What impact have rising mortgage interest rates had? Despite making the headlines in recent months, the impact of rising mortgage interest rates on affordability has so far been relatively modest. But with the economy back in recession and renewed fears... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Presidential election may make QE3 even less likely A look back at history throws cold water over suggestions that the Fed tends to alter its behaviour ahead of Presidential elections. Nonetheless, with political hostility towards the Fed currently... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Apr.) Falling energy prices and favourable base effectspushed the annual CPI inflation rate down to a 12-month low of 2.3% in April, from 2.7%. Headline CPI inflation will fall below 2.0% over the next few... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
