Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s strong 0.4% m/m gain in retail sales volumes bodes well for monthly GDP growth, helping to offset the negative impact from the weaker wholesale trade report released last week. Overall, we... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan turns to the IMF and Saudi Arabia for funding The soaring cost of energy subsidies has led the Jordanian government to turn to the IMF and Saudi Arabia for $5 billion in external financial assistance. We think that given Jordan’s geopolitical... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How bad were the Q1 data for emerging Asia? Most of Asia reported weak GDP growth in the first quarter of this year, due mainly to weak export demand. The crisis in the euro-zone is likely to weigh heavily on Asia this year. However, the... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s growth set to slow further Today’s GDP data show that Malaysia’s growth slowed in Q1, mainly due to weaker exports. With renewed concerns from the euro crisis weighing on global sentiment, exporters are likely to face an even... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would a Greek exit mean for gilts? Although a Greek exit from the euro-zone might indirectly tarnish gilts’ safe-haven status, the economic disruption that it would cause would probably apply additional downward pressure on gilt yields... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still biased towards further easing There is no real substance to suggestions that the lack of any explicit reference to “powerful” easing in the Bank of Japan’s policy statement today signals a shift towards a more neutral stance... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina edging closer to recession We were one of the first forecasters to predict a recession during the Fernández government’s second term. Even so, the extent of the recent slowdown has been greater than even we had anticipated, and... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor April weakness prompts stimulus response The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) confirms that the economy took an abrupt turn for the worse in April. The government is now ramping up its stimulus but the impact will come too late... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pre-election spending deepens structural problems in Venezuela The recent sale of debt by the Venezuelan authorities will help to bolster economic growth ahead of October’s presidential election. But the fact that the debt issuance has effectively been monetised... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The relatively dovish tone of the minutes of May’s MPC meeting suggested that the door to more quantitative easing (QE) is still open. We continue to expect the asset purchases to be resumed soon. 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What does the moderation in London house price inflation mean? Last night’s Evening Standard headline, “House prices fall in London”, may have stretched the truth. Yet it does appear as though the pace of house price growth in London is at least beginning to slow... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1 12) GDP data for Q1 this year showed Norway’s economy expanding at a very healthy pace. But on balance, we think the adverse effects of the euro-zone debt crisis will prompt Norges Bank to cut its key... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) The rise in existing home sales in April suggests that the modest recovery in housing market activity is back on track. The improvement is being driven almost entirely by cash buyers and investors... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a country exiting the euro also have to leave the EU? Despite much confusion on this point, there does not appear to be any insurmountable legal barrier to a country leaving the euro and remaining within the European Union (EU), even without the prior... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1) GDP data for Q1 this year showed Norway’s economy expanding at a very healthy pace. But on balance, we think the adverse effects of the euro-zone debt crisis will prompt Norges Bank to cut its key... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
