Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Good news in Tunisia will probably not last The pick-up in Tunisia’s annual GDP growth rate from a of 0.4% y/y in Q4 2011 to an impressive of 4.8% y/y in Q1 2012 is flattered by base effects stemming from the collapse in output this time last... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Q2) The latest IPF Consensus forecasts were little changed from February’s survey. Capital values are expected to drop by 4% to 5% this year. To our minds, however, the consensus is still a little too... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Lettings Survey (Apr.) The growth of tenant demand continued to ease at the start of 2012, but not by enough to slow the modest upward path of rents. Nevertheless, falling real pay points to rental value growth slowing... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack From currency war to currency rout Financial markets across the whole of Latin America have been hammered over the past month by a euro-zone related flight to safety but amid the sell-off the collapse in the Brazilian real stands out... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Markit's new PMI looks to be a valuable addition Markit’s new US manufacturing PMI appears to be better at capturing changes in GDP growth and manufacturing output than the ISM survey. That said, the very limited history means the real test is... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The annual growth rate of our re-constructed measure of M3 eased slightly to 5.2% y/y in April, from 5.9% but, with M1 and M2 still growing at much faster rates, we see no cause for alarm. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Caught in the crossfire Emerging Europe’s financial markets have been battered over the past month amid growing fears of a disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone. Equities are down by around 10% in most of the region... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rise back to underlying trend Our econometric model suggests that May is the month when payrolls growth snapped back in line with the underlying trend. We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in May, up... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending recovery runs out of steam After a seemingly strong spell around the turn of the year, the recovery in consumer spending is flagging again. Total real spending grew by just 0.1% in the first quarter, as a rise in retail sales... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The euro has yet to price in a break-up Even after the recent falls, the euro exchange rate does not appear to incorporate a significant “break-up premium”. As such, we see scope for further considerable declines as the crisis continues. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Apr.) While the 0.2% m/m increase in durable goods orders in April was in line with the consensus forecast, we would still label this a mildly disappointing report, since that gain was largely driven by an... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What should we expect from first quarter GDP in India? India’s first quarter GDP data, due to be published on 31st May, are likely to show a further slowdown in activity compared to the last quarter of 2011. With no sign that growth is likely to pick up... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece survive outside the euro-zone? Many commentators argue that even though Greece might benefit from leaving the euro-zone in the long run, an immediate exit would result in the Government running out of money with potentially... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values on track for 6% fall this year All-property capital values edged lower in April and the annual rate of change has now dropped to minus 0.6%. A simple extrapolation from recent figures points to a fall in capital values for 2012 as... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Falling inflation in Vietnam opens door to further rate cuts Inflation in Vietnam fell in May for the ninth consecutive month, with the y/y rate dropping below 10% for the first time since late 2010. Weaker inflation should provide further support to the dong... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
