Europe Commercial Property Update A brighter outlook for Oslo office rents? Reports that office rents in Oslo continued to rise in Q1 seem consistent with the economy’s stronger-than-expected start to the year. And they almost certainly suggest that our forecast of stagnant... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May) May’s EC business and consumer survey underlined the enormity of the task facing euro-zone policymakers if they are going to convert the growing “consensus” on the need for stronger growth across the... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) The commercial property sector saw further negative net lending flows in April. And given the weak economy and lenders’ still-high exposure to the sector, it is hard to see any improvement in lending... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) The Bank of England measure of mortgage approvals for April does nothing to change the picture of a depressed mortgage market. With escalating tensions in the euro-zone likely to curb further the... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1) The Swedish GDP figures for Q1 suggest that the economy is withstanding the euro-zone fiscal crisis pretty well. But we still think that Sweden is set for a bumpy ride and that the Riksbank will... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) The fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 64.9 in May, from 68.7 in April, suggests that the sharp drop back in stock markets was the dominant factor... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) Recent fiscal data suggest that Greece and Spain will struggle to meet their existing budget deficit forecasts for 2012 without implementing further austerity measures. But for now at least, the... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q1) In seasonally-adjusted terms, the Case-Shiller national house price index reported its strongest quarterly gain for two-and-a-half years. And with the economic recovery now on firmer ground, we see no... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to slow this year Our new Saudi Arabian whole-economy activity proxy suggests that GDP grew by around 7% y/y in the first quarter of this year, maintaining the record pace of growth in 2011. However, the combination of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update External financing risks resurface for Hungary and Turkey Policymakers in both Hungary and Turkey kept rates on hold today, but clearly talk of looser policy to support growth is premature. 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are historical monetary break-ups relevant to the euro-zone? The break-up of the euro-zone would be an unprecedented event because the euro itself is unique. But there are still some useful lessons to be learnt from previous monetary splits. 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update South Africa: strong Q1, but growth already slowing South African growth surprised on the upside in the first quarter this year, but leading indicators already suggest the economy has slowed in Q2. We expect GDP to grow by just 2.3% over the course of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch The long pause in policy interest rate just getting started While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1.00% next week, we think the Bank's upcoming policy statement, due out on Tuesday, will be more downbeat... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Apr.) The Land Registry repeat sales index of average house prices edged lower for the second consecutive month in April. But for now the renewed signs of weakness are more evident in the North of England... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand dollar rally unlikely to last The New Zealand dollar has been one of Asia’s worst-hit currencies since fears of a euro-zone breakup escalated. The currency has regained some ground in recent days and most analysts expect it to... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
