Europe Economics Update Another shot at TARGET2 While some of the concerns over TARGET2 imbalances might be over-done, they are nonetheless a reminder of the depth of the economic and financial problems facing the currency union. 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (May) May’s fall in euro-zone CPI inflation and the drop in the German unemployment rate were rare pieces of good news for the beleaguered euro-zone. But the recent sharp falls in measures of business... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil interest rates: falling further for longer Last night’s decision by the Central Bank of Brazil to slow the pace of interest rate cuts suggests that we are getting close to the end of the easing cycle. Nonetheless, we continue to expect the... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Why leisure property is set to outperform Leisure property will not be immune to the weak economy in 2012 but, over a three-year horizon, there is cause for optimism. Indeed, our upgraded forecast is that leisure total returns will average at... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth rebounds in the Philippines, but will the recovery last? GDP growth in the Philippines rebounded strongly in the first quarter due to continued strong private consumption, a pick-up in government spending and a recovery in exports. However, with the crisis... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May) Today’s data from the Nationwide show that house prices continue to tread water. In terms of the outlook, however, downside risks, such as further falls in GDP, dominate the upside. We continue to... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What can policymakers do to limit financial contagion? There are several ways that, in theory, policymakers in Emerging Europe could limit any financial contagion arising from a disorderly break-up of the euro. But in practice, we suspect that building... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) The surprise pick-up in the GfK measure of consumer confidence in May is consistent with the positive findings from the recent CBI Distributive Trades Survey. The Nationwide house price index released... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1 12) The Swedish GDP figures for Q1 suggest that the economy is withstanding the eurozone fiscal crisis pretty well. But we still think that Sweden is set for a bumpy ride andthat the Riksbank will reduce... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can a bail-out solve Spain’s problems? A worsening domestic economy and limited scope for the state bank reconstruction fund (FROB) to defuse Spain’s banking crisis, make an EU/IMF bail-out package look unavoidable. But in our view, it is... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Argentina headed for a fresh currency crisis? Argentina’s ample foreign reserves and tight capital controls mean that the government will not be forced into allowing the peso to devalue sharply in the near-term. That said, the current managed... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) April’s household borrowing figures painted a weak picture, suggesting that lending growth is still too weak to foster a sustainable recovery in consumer spending. 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can the US monetary data explain the price of gold? The relationship between the dollar price of gold and the size of the US monetary base is not as robust as often assumed. Prior to the global financial crisis there was barely any relationship at all... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s generous liquidity measures are not prompting banks to lend more to the rest of the economy. 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) With money growth still very weak, we continue to think that another extension of quantitative easing is very close. 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
