Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peso driven by risk appetite not politics The latest opinion poll in Mexico suggests that the left-leaning Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made a late charge ahead of July’s presidential election. That has coincided with a sharp sell-off of... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis taking a heavy toll on Emerging Europe’s industry May’s manufacturing PMI data provide further evidence – if any were needed – that the euro-crisis is hitting the economies of Emerging Europe. Industry already appears to be in recession in much of... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. & Final Man. PMI (Apr./May) The latest data on the state of the euro-zone labour market and manufacturing sector confirm that the economic downturn is broadening and gathering pace. This clearly further reduces policymakers’... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (May) The sharp deterioration in May’s CIPS report on manufacturing suggests that the downturn in the industrial sector has intensified and has increased the pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) There was further disappointment in today’s manufacturing PMIs from China. But the May surveys were largely conducted before the shift of policy stance in the last third of the month and so tell us... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to resume QE – possibly this month The minutes of May’s meeting showed that the decision to pause quantitative easing (QE) was pretty close. And the news since then has strengthened the case for doing more. Our hunch is that the... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why are fiscal options being neglected? Despite a healthy budget position, the stimulus plans being unveiled in China are heavily-weighted towards investment. In this China Watch we ask why fiscal options are being neglected. We also look... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Currencies and equities fall sharply, further falls likely Following a strong start to the year, most Asian currencies and equities fell sharply in May. The main reason is that renewed concerns over the euro-zone’s future brought a return in global risk... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Will the ECB provide more support? The further escalation of the euro-zone crisis has intensified the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to take further remedial action. But while President Draghi may hold open the prospect of... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack May's meltdown The prices of industrial and agricultural commodities were hit hard in May by the escalating crisis in the euro-zone and worries over demand from China (as we had anticipated). In particular, oil fell... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Payroll employment (Mar.) and Balance of Payments (Q1) March's business payroll figures showed an encouraging 0.8% m/m gain in average weekly earnings and a respectable 48,950 gain in employment. Even so, given the previous declines in payroll employment... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update More homes built for rent to drive further fall in floor space The modest improvement in housing demand combined with recent increases in homebuilder confidence are reasons to think that the fall in average new home floor space should be drawing to an end. But... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A primer on China’s PMIs China’s two manufacturing PMIs are now among the world’s most closely-watched pieces of economic data. In this Focus, we take a close look, highlighting which of the two indices and their components... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland resilient to euro-crisis but not immune First quarter GDP confirmed what we’ve known for a while: Poland is more resilient than her peers to the crisis in the euro-zone, but equally she is not immune. And with the euro-crisis deepening, a... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s growth rate slows further, worse still to come The sharp slowdown in India’s GDP growth in the first quarter means hopes for growth of 7% or more this calendar year are too optimistic. We are cutting our forecast to 6%. 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
