UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (May) The small rise in the Halifax house price index for May seems to be in keeping with other evidence that house prices are stuck in a rut, at least at the national level. 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) May’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor supported other evidence suggesting that demand on the high street has recovered following April’s washout. However, there are reasons to think that May’s resilience is... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Domestic demand prospects looking less sure Canada's economy grew by 1.9% annualised in the first quarter, matching the pace in the previous quarter and, given the recent slump in commodity and equity prices, a substantial pick-up in growth... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts We have revised some of our key market forecasts for government bonds, equities, commodities and currencies. The new forecasts are presented in the table at the bottom of this page. The major changes... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unwilling to do more just yet The European Central Bank (ECB) continued to indicate that it is up to national policymakers to take further actions to address the euro-zone crisis, rather than the Bank itself. 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns subsiding in Latin America In line with our forecast, inflation has eased across most of the region in 2012 as the effects of last year’s food price shock work their way out of the annual comparison. We expect this trend to... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More price falls to come, led by oil Other analysts are reportedly “shell-shocked” by the sharp declines in the prices of oil and other commodities in May, but we had already been braced for the fall-out from an escalation of the crisis... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A fiscal ‘free lunch’? The debate around fiscal policy has tended to become polarised between advocates of austerity, who argue that any relaxation of deficit reduction would bring down the wrath of markets, and opponents... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s economy disappoints in Q1 The slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s annual GDP growth rate from a 6.6% y/y in Q4 2011 to 5.9% y/y in Q1 2012 suggests that last year’s record performance in the non-oil sector is unsustainable. 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) The small fall in mortgage applications for home purchase suggests that, despite record low mortgage rates, the renewed weakness in the labour market is starting to weigh on housing demand. 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK remains a safe haven from euro-zone turmoil The threat to the UK from the euro-zone has continued to intensify, with concerns building about the Spanish banking system in recent days. But the UK has so far retained its safe-haven status, with... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & German Industrial Production (Apr.) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q1 confirmed that the economy narrowly avoided a technical recession. But with April’s German industrial production data confirming that even the region’s... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Who in Asia is most vulnerable to a hard landing in China? Recent weak data from China has led to renewed fears of a hard landing in Asia’s biggest economy. The countries most exposed would be those for which China is an important export market such as Hong... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack North/South divide still widening With households battling falling real wages, tighter credit conditions and modest rises in mortgage interest rates, there seems little prospect of a return to more normal levels of activity in the... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Construction PMI (May) and Mergers & Acquisitions (Q1) The slump in M&A activity in Q1 seems to echo other reports of increased occupier caution in recent weeks. For now, however, there is little sign that developers are scaling back their plans in... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
