Bank of Japan Watch Policy on hold for now as euro-zone crisis pauses The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will conclude its two-day June meeting this Friday (15th). We expect this to be uneventful for three reasons. First, the weekend’s bailout of Spain’s banks has reduced... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning are continued disposals by institutions? Property Archive’s data showed that, while overall commercial property investment market activity was solid in May, UK-based institutions were again net sellers. Historically, net disposals by... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Under the weather? The recent swings in weather conditions and retail sales have brought to the fore the issue of the impact of the weather on consumer spending. There are occasions when the weather can have an impact... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall further as euro-zone crisis deepens Headline inflation has dropped this year in most major economies and is likely to come down further as global growth falters, the euro-zone crisis deepens and commodity prices continue to fall. We... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is fiscal stimulus on the way in Asia? Our view that Asia is well-placed to withstand sluggish global growth and the crisis in the euro-zone is based on our belief that policymakers in the region have plenty of scope to cut interest rates... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would trigger QE3? Unless the economy loses a lot more momentum or the eventual financial contagion from the crisis in Europe is much greater than we expect, the Fed is unlikely to launch a third round of asset... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s industrial production figures suggested that the sector is on course to make yet another negative contribution to GDP growth in the second quarter. 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro-crisis takes centre stage The crisis in the euro-zone continues to cast a long shadow over the outlook for Emerging Europe. Most countries are already feeling the effects of weaker export demand, and the very open economies in... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower office take-up volumes in store for Germany On past form, the drop in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) seen in Germany in the first quarter is a signal that a sharp fall in office take-up is likely to follow. We expect investment to fall... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates to remain on hold in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate on hold for the fourth consecutive month and we expect rates to remain at their current levels for the rest of the year. However, in contrast to the... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (May) The recent, modest improvement in sales instructions and new buyer enquiries seemed to grind to a halt in May. Add in a drop in both agreed and completed sales and the main message from May’s RICS... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets' optimism to prove short lived Growing speculation that Spain may be about to gain a banking sector bail-out with limited conditionality has raised expectations that euro-zone policymakers are beginning to take a more flexible... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Too soon to sound the all-clear on Colombian credit growth While overall credit growth in Colombia is slowing, consumer lending remains uncomfortably strong. The deepening crisis in Europe will probably prevent policymakers from raising rates over the next... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi's $100 "target" won't set a floor on oil prices OPEC is almost certain to maintain its official output ceiling at 30 million barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting on Thursday. This decision would not preclude some cuts in production in the coming... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Business conditions tougher than expected but optimism remains The government’s Business Outlook Survey indicates conditions deteriorated slightly in Q2, confounding Q1’s forecasts of a strong recovery. Despite the tougher-than-expected environment, firms remain... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
