Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt inflation down, but little chance of rate cut The fall in Egyptian inflation to a seven-month low in May is good news but does not provide sufficient grounds for the central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate on Thursday. 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fall in inventories could trigger wider weakness The UK’s return to recession in the past two quarters has been driven by a fall in stockbuilding. Stockbuilding is an erratic component of GDP and so this weakness might just be temporary. However, if... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Banks respond to stimulus call as economy stabilises The May data brought evidence that conditions in China’s economy stopped deteriorating last month and may have moderately improved. With its banks now pumping out loans to willing state-owned... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports rebound China’s imports of commodities were surprisingly strong in May. The figures were probably flattered by the temporary closures of customs offices in the previous month and by some commodity-specific... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain will need more help Spain’s banking bail-out may help to pull the country away from the centre of the euro-zone storm for a while. But we doubt that it is the only support that the country will need. 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing construction likely to keep on giving The latest permit data indicate that condo developments continue to be the main source of strength in new housing construction, which has showed little sign of slowing. Given the lengthy construction... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Households snap up Treasuries Households appear to be making a concerted effort to hold safer assets. In fact, in the first quarter they bought more Treasuries than the Fed and overseas investors combined. Should foreign appetite... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea likely to change policy stance soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) has become increasingly worried about the outlook for growth, but lingering inflation concerns are dissuading the central bank from loosening policy. We expect inflation to... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy set to slow sharply after Q1 growth spurt The strong rebound in Japanese GDP in Q1 is likely to mark the high point for growth this year. The recovery is heavily reliant on government support and it looks increasingly unlikely that the... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly One swallow does not a summer make In the midst of a generally gloomy economic situation, the last week has seen a string of fairly positive domestic news. But we doubt that May’s resilient picture will last. 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm policymakers content to play waiting game on rates Today’s decisions by Peru and Mexico to leave interest rates unchanged support our belief that, in the near-term, most of the region’s policymakers will await clearer evidence on the health of the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response LFS(May 12) & Trade (Apr 12) May's more modest 7,700 gain in employment is forgivable given the unusually strong growth in the previous two months. That said, the details were somewhat discouraging. While part-time employment... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.)12 The narrowing in the trade deficit in April is encouraging, especially given that the latest fall in the oil price will reduce the cost of imported oil. More worrying, however, are the growing signs... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Modest housing improvement still holding up The weaker tone of the economic and labour market data has yet to be reflected in the housing numbers. Home sales rose by 3.4% m/m in April and are 10% higher than a year ago. The fact that improving... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
