Japan Economics Update Underlying investment outlook remains weak We are sceptical that signs of an increase in business capital spending signal a rebound in private non-residential investment. Underlying business investment is weak, albeit on a gradual upward trend... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How real is the threat of protectionism? Concerns that Latin America might be spiralling towards a new era of protectionism have emerged in 2012. But while it is true that the region as a whole has seen an increase in protectionist trade... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf are well placed to weather the storm One of the main channels through which the euro-zone debt crisis could affect the oil-rich Gulf economies is via a drop in foreign capital inflows due to heightened global risk aversion. In particular... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (May) The stalling in underlying retail sales growth in May suggests that the recent easing in jobs growth has started to curtail spending. We doubt, however, that the economic recovery has come to a... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long will the Hong Kong peg last? A provocative new paper by Joseph Yam, the former head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, calling for the territory to review its currency peg to the US dollar has once again raised questions over... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation falling in Eastern Europe Headline inflation fell pretty much everywhere in Emerging Europe in May on the back of easing food and energy inflation. Moreover, with the possible exception of Turkey, underlying price pressures... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed probably won't act as soon as next week The intensifying crisis in the euro-zone coupled with signs that the US economic recovery is faltering have led to speculation that the Fed will provide more monetary stimulus at the next two-day FOMC... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Can Japan’s stimulus offset weak demand elsewhere? Japan’s post-earthquake policy stimulus may be having a positive impact on the demand for commodities, but any boost will be short-lived and should be far smaller than the potential adverse effects of... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand likely to loosen policy by year-end The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as was widely expected. While Thailand’s economy bounced back strongly in Q1 from last year’s flood-induced slump, the focus has now... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s industrial production figures provided a further indication that the euro-zone’s narrow escape from technical recession in Q1 will not last very long. 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rents in Madrid likely to underperform relative to Barcelona Office rental values in Spain are forecast to fall by around 15% over 2012-13 as occupier demand weakens further. But on a city level, Madrid is exposed to greater downside risks than Barcelona. This... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Latvia a model for the euro-zone’s periphery? It is probably too soon to judge whether or not Latvia’s internal devaluation has been a success. But the early signs do not suggest that it provides a model for the euro-zone’s crisis-hit periphery... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA’s estimates consistent with lower grain prices The United States Department for Agriculture’s (USDA) latest estimates for 2012/13 indicate a further marginal increase in both the global corn and soybean end stocks. This is consistent with our... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking union is only part of the answer Talk of an EU banking union provides some hope that policymakers are starting to address one of the potential triggers for a euro-zone break-up. But the prospect of a full-blown banking union seems as... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
