Saudi's $100 "target" won't set a floor on oil prices

OPEC is almost certain to maintain its official output ceiling at 30 million barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting on Thursday. This decision would not preclude some cuts in production in the coming months if demand continues to weaken, since actual output is well above its notional target. But any reduction in OPEC supply is unlikely to be enough to prevent further falls in the oil price, even if these falls take the OPEC basket (and Brent) well below the informal Saudi “target” of $100 per barrel.