Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peña Nieto wins but no PRI majority If Mexico’s President-elect, Enrique Peña Nieto, is to achieve 6% GDP growth he will have to press ahead with reforms. However, with the PRI falling short of a majority in Congress, he will need to... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: financing risks cloud the outlook With the temporary boost to consumer spending from the Euro 2012 Football Championship now over, Ukraine has to get back to reality. Significant external financing needs continue to cast a long shadow... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Jun.) The further deterioration in housing market demand in June was met with a broadly offsetting decline in supply. Nevertheless, a growing proportion of surveyors are reporting that house prices are... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish sovereign bail-out still looks very likely The measures announced at last night’s finance ministers’ meeting to support Spain don’t alter our view that the country will require a full sovereign bail-out in the fairly near future. 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Jun.) Three points leap out from China’s June trade data. Exports to the US have taken a sudden turn for the worse. Commodity imports have slumped. And the trade surplus has returned to the level it was at... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of industrial commodities drop sharply China’s commodity imports fell in June, with industrial commodities the worst affected due to the slowdown in economic activity. While end-user demand may recover a little in the second half, this may... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (May) May’s industrial and trade figures were not quite as strong as they first appeared. Abstracting from the one-off factors affecting the official figures, it still seems as if an underlying slowdown is... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Do commercial property yields have further to rise? Simple calculations suggest that the rate of future rental growth implied by prevailing property yields is too low, or, in other words, that yields themselves may already have risen far enough. But... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jun.) June’s consumer confidence survey, released today, shows a slight dip compared to May but we suspect that underlying sentiment is weaker than the headline index suggests. The poll was taken nearly a... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun.) June’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor supports other evidence suggesting that the extended Jubilee holiday boosted demand on the high street in the early part of the month. But that boost seems to have been... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook & Senior Loan Officer Surveys (2012Q2) The latest quarterly business surveys indicate that, while significantly fewer businesses expect future sales growth to pick-up over the next 12 months, they remain steadfast in their plans to... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Little respite in sight for the euro The euro’s slide against the dollar is unlikely to end any time soon. Admittedly, the exchange rate is already at a two year low. But an escalation of the euro-zone crisis and a deep recession should... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would a euro-zone exit affect households? Leaving the euro-zone would clearly have adverse consequences for households in the exiting country as higher import prices hit spending power. But they could reasonably believe that those costs would... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policymakers will struggle to support global growth Hopes that the EU was finally getting to grips with its crisis and that monetary stimulus would boost global demand have faded. With euro break-up risk likely to rise in the second half of the year... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: drifting towards a two-tier peso? Argentina’s tightly managed exchange rate is not compatible with the expansive macro policies that have driven inflation up to double-digit levels. Nonetheless, the authorities seem determined to have... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
