Asia Economics Update Australian economy will cool further Australia’s economy slowed to close to its trend rate in the second quarter, after an unsustainable surge in mining investment drove strong growth in Q1. Although growth is likely to weaken again in... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the outlook for Russian property returns worsened? Recent signs of an economic slowdown have been in line with our expectations. Thus we feel little need to revise our relatively positive Russian commercial property forecasts. However, the gloomy... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2 12) Q2’s fall in Swiss GDP could mark the start of a new recession. While Switzerland’s domestic outlook is far better than that of the euro-zone, the open economy will suffer from a strong currency and... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Aug. 12) August’s CIPS/Markit report on services (due tomorrow, but accidentally released early) brought some good news. Nevertheless, some bounce-back in activity in August was always possible given the... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Oil prices to fall with or without use of strategic reserves There has been fresh speculation that the major oil-consuming nations will shortly announce another release of crude stocks from official reserves, coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA)... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone back in recession Recent indicators have supported the view that the euro-zone is now firmly in recession. GDP fell by 0.2% in Q2 after stagnating in Q1 and falling by 0.3% in Q4. And the business surveys so far point... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) August’s ISM manufacturing index gives the Fed another green light to launch QE3 next week. Such action is warranted, but it won’t dramatically alter the economic landscape. 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Despite the slowdown in the pace of wider economic growth, house prices are growing strongly. Moreover, the recovery looks broad based, encompassing both distressed and non-distressed homes. 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Construction PMI (Aug.) and Mergers & Acquisitions (Q2) For the first time since early 2010, August saw the commercial property construction PMI dip below 50. Meanwhile, mergers and acquisitions activity remained very low in Q2. As signals of continued... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) Q2’s fall in Swiss GDP could mark the start of a new recession. While Switzerland’s domestic outlook is far better than that of the euro-zone, the open economy will suffer from a strong currency and... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry set to slow by year-end Mexican industry remains in good shape for now, but forward looking indicators suggest that activity is likely to slow towards the end of the year. This supports our view that GDP growth will slow... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing weakens further in August The industrial slowdown which began in the second quarter has accelerated and is affecting advanced and emerging economies alike. GDP is likely to contract in the euro-zone and Japan in Q3, while... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE and Saudi still growing at a healthy pace PMIs for the UAE and Saudi Arabia show that their respective non-oil private sectors continued to grow at a healthy pace in August. However, we think both are set to slow over the rest of the year. 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) August’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided more evidence that the Olympics did not provide a hoped for boost to spending. Looking ahead, factors including higher petrol prices are likely to keep a lid... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
