Commodities Update China's weak commodity imports show fragility of demand Today’s Chinese trade data highlight the continued weakness in demand in the largest global consumer of commodities. Markets have taken some comfort from the increased likelihood of additional... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Our forecasts for types of consumer spending In this Focus, we review the way we forecast the different types of consumer spending. Slower growth of spending on essentials should allow a gradual recovery in nominal discretionary spending over... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Return to a gold standard neither practical nor desirable The historical experience of the gold standard is that countries often saw periodic declines in their gold stocks, which triggered either a corresponding contraction in money or a hike in interest... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Plan for growth still falls short The Government has returned after the summer break clearly keen to get on the front-foot regarding the dismal state of the economy. Perhaps the most notable aspect of the raft of announcements, though... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Non-manufacturing will continue to outperform The ISM non-manufacturing survey gets much less attention than its older manufacturing brother even though the non-manufacturing sectors account for a much larger share of GDP. And if these sectors... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The stronger than expected 34,300 rebound in August employment, which offsets a similar decline in the prior month, leaves employment barely higher than three months ago. Dwindling employment gains... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the game really changed? While the very positive response to the ECB’s plans to undertake “Outright Monetary Transactions” (OMTs) is not entirely without foundation, it at least looks over the top. On close inspection, the... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug. 12) The modest 96,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August only increases the probability that the Fed will launch QE3 next week and it won't help President Obama's re-election chances either. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Consumer price inflation probably picked up slightly last month. It is likely to rise further in coming months, constraining policymakers’ ability to support the economy. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Jul.) July’s German industrial production and trade figures suggest that the economy made a good start to the third quarter despite falling demand elsewhere in the euro-zone. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Q3) The latest IPF Consensus forecasts contained few revisions from the previous survey. Capital values are still expected to drop by up to 5% this year, edge a little lower next year and then start to... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What are the odds of an economic slump? The OECD is now forecasting that growth in the G7 economies will slump over the second half of this year, barely managing to stay in positive territory, before picking up materially next year... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How successful was the auto subsidy? The government’s eco-car subsidy appears to have run its course. Although it provided a visible boost to car sales, which supported aggregate spending, the subsidy should not be given all the credit... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian monetary policy bias gets a little tighter Peru kept rates on hold last night, but a moderate tightening bias may emerge in the months ahead. As it happens, we suspect that rates will remain unchanged for the rest of 2012 as a stronger growth... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity grinds lower This month provides further evidence that the housing market is on a gentle downwards trajectory. Government efforts to stimulate the sector, either through interventions to boost mortgage lending or... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
