UK Data Response UK Ind. Production (Jul.) & Producer Prices (Aug.) While July’s industrial figures showed that production bounced back fully from June’s drop, the sector still looks likely to struggle in the coming months. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP hit by austerity and falling confidence Final Q2 GDP data confirmed that weak domestic demand was the main drag on growth in Central and South Eastern, coming on the back of fiscal austerity and falling confidence. But with external... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s policymakers ready to act again All five central banks which announce their policy rate decisions this week are likely to signal that global worries are a key downside risk for local growth. Only in Korea do we expect a policy rate... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily ECB has not upped its policy support as much as it might seem 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Riksbank will be the last in the cycle. If the euro-zone debt crisis intensifies as we expect, interest rates may eventually fall well below 1%. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Glimmers of reform ahead of leadership handover China will unveil a new group of leaders in the next few weeks. There are tentative signs that they will finally start to grapple with the structural challenges facing the economy. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is past exuberance still holding back housebuilding? Today’s announcement of a raft of new policy measures designed to boost housebuilding and revitalise the economy are a welcome development. But, over-optimistic expectations during the boom have left... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold, although easing could come soon While Egypt’s central bank kept rates on hold today, the government’s progress towards securing a deal with the IMF means that the easing cycle could start sooner rather than later. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Positive reaction to ECB could prove short-lived The confirmation that the ECB is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral government bonds looks encouraging at face value. But the details reveal that the Bank has not upped its policy... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Still room for Budapest office yields to underperform We see no reason to expect the wide spread that has emerged between prime office yields in Budapest and those in Prague and Warsaw to narrow anytime soon. Instead, Hungary’s relatively weak economic... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Orban scuppers IMF deal (again) Today’s statement by Hungarian PM Victor Orban that his government will reject the conditions attached to an IMF programme is unlikely to spell the end of negotiations between the two parties, but it... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Softer economy unlikely to derail housing recovery The softer pace of economic growth in the second half of the year may lead to a slight moderation in the pace of house price gains. But the bigger picture is that growing buyer interest and a tight... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update China’s smaller savings surplus little threat to Treasuries One popular misconception is that China’s reinvestment of its “surplus” savings has directly depressed long-term US Treasury yields. If this were true, why have yields remained so low in recent years... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will bring oil prices back down again? A coordinated release of official stocks is one possible trigger for a correction in oil prices, but we still think that it is neither imminent nor necessary. A more realistic assessment of the... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weak economy to prompt more stimulus by end of year The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today was unsurprising and may partly have reflected a desire to wait to see what comes out of today’s ECB meeting. We still expect more asset purchases to... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s policy conundrum Policymakers in Russia are likely to find themselves in something of a bind over the coming months – while growth is starting to slow, inflation looks set to accelerate. For now it seems that... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
