US Employment Report Preview Fiscal cliff may hit hiring Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by around 100,000 in August, which would be disappointing after July’s 163,000 gain. What’s more, it is possible that in the... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Cost control boosts US corporate profits One of the salient features of the US economy since the official end of the Great Recession has been the strength of corporate profits. Nonetheless, we are sceptical that it will last. 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Retail sales fall as support from vehicle subsidy fades Slowing auto sales dragged down retail spending last month. Even sharper falls are likely when the funds for the eco-car subsidy run out, probably any day now. With few signs of support elsewhere in... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil and coal prices face multitude of downside risks Oil prices have been boosted by hopes of additional global policy stimulus and fears of a worsening of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but we expect these supports to be shortlived. Possible... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Aug.) On the back of ample liquidity, scarce supply and low interest rates, highly-rated bond markets in the oil-rich Gulf should continue to outperform other Middle Eastern assets in the coming months... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Bond purchases on hold, but other measures possible We expect the ECB to disappoint markets this week with its plans for peripheral government bond purchases. President Mario Draghi is likely to state that such purchases will be limited and that they... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Scandal highlights problems with Vietnam's banking sector The arrest last week of two well-connected businessmen has helped to highlight the worsening problems in Vietnam’s banking sector, which has seen a sharp rise in non-performing loans and a slump in... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Domestic austerity continues to bite A raft of GDP data released this month showed that growth slowed across most of Emerging Europe in the second quarter. Hungary and the Czech Republic were the worst performing economies, as both sank... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Aug.) August’s weaker than expected EC business and consumer surveys provided further signs that the euro-zone is in a broad-based recession. This will add to the pressure on the ECB to come up with more... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why isn’t tenant demand stronger? In contrast to the first ‘dip’, strong increases in rents are currently constraining the rise in tenant demand typically seen during recessions. In turn, this is due to a relatively low supply of new... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slowdown in Poland set to prompt rate cuts Poland remains one of Emerging Europe’s strongest performing economies. But a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q2 means that it is looking likely that the National Bank will cut interest rates by... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Persistent imbalances in the drivers of growth Growth is still unbalanced in many parts of Latin America. The resilience of domestic demand against a weak global backdrop has helped to bolster service sector activity, even as local industry... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul) As expected and in line with BBA data for July, mortgage approvals rebounded slightly from June’s 18-month low, when lending was constrained by special factors. But the poor economic outlook argues... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jul.) The latest drop in net lending shows that banks continued the process of running down their exposure to the property sector in July. But given the slow speed of the adjustment, weak lending will... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: modest recovery to keep rates lower than most expect The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) lowered interest rates by a further 50bps last night and hinted that the end of the current easing cycle may now be very close. We think that the consensus expectation... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth in the Philippines remains strong, but will it last? GDP growth in the Philippines remained strong in Q2, with the pace of expansion slowing only slightly compared with Q1. Both domestic demand and exports continued to grow at a healthy pace. But with... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
