Asia Economics Update Malaysia on hold this year, but rate cut likely in 2013 Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold today at 3%, as was widely expected. The economy has shaken off the global slowdown better than almost any in Asia, meaning there is little... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone GDP (Q2) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q2 revealed that last quarter’s contraction was down to a decline in domestic spending. With the timelier data consistent with sharper declines in activity ahead... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the house-building package deliver? Of the raft of policies announced since the Government returned after the summer break, today’s measures to boost house-building are perhaps likely to have the biggest economic impact. That said, they... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa set to remain a regional underperformer Recent events in South Africa’s mining sector, while tragic, are also symptomatic of wider economic problems that are likely to mean the country falls short of achieving its significant growth... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Riksbank will be the last in the cycle. If the euro-zone debt crisis intensifies as we expect, interest rates may eventually fall well below 1%. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Aug) The small drop in house prices in August provides further evidence that prices are on a gradual downwards trajectory. And there is little in either the housing or wider economic data to suggest that... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the stock market cheering for Obama? The close relationship between President Obama’s chances of re-election and the level of the S&P 500 appears to suggest that the stock markets favour a Democrat as President. But it is important not... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will silver continue to outperform gold? The dollar price of silver has risen by around 16% since the middle of August, fuelled by the prospects of QE3 and hopes of a stronger industrial recovery, outperforming gold’s 6% increase. However... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate cut on the cards for next month Today’s post-MPC press conference gave the clearest sign yet that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is set to start cutting interest rates in order to counter the recent downturn in the economy. We... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank persists with tightening bias The Bank of Canada continues to insist that its policy rate will eventually need to rise from the current 1.0%, even as the global economic slowdown intensifies and the domestic housing boom shows... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed poised to launch QE3 It now seems highly likely that the Fed will launch a third round of large-scale asset purchases (QE3) at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday 13th September. We expect QE3 to... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand still likely to loosen monetary policy The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as was widely expected. Healthy domestic demand is cushioning the blow from soft exports, but we think persistent global weakness will... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug. 12) Mortgage applications for home purchase fell sharply in August, providing further evidence that mortgage-dependent buyers are barely contributing to the recovery in housing market activity. Without a... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: second-half recovery looks like wishful thinking Despite government efforts to stimulate the economy, there is scant evidence of a rebound in Argentine growth. Rampant inflation is eating into real wage growth and squeezing household spending, while... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Latest figures compound fiscal dilemma The poor run of public borrowing figures and growing calls for the Government to do more to support the economy have intensified the fiscal dilemma facing the Chancellor. 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
