US Economics Update GDI may be a more robust, and worrying, measure of growth The alternative gross domestic income (GDI) measure of output suggests that the US economy is hardly growing at all. What’s more, there are a couple of reasons why GDI may be a more robust and more... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack IMF comes to the rescue Concerns over the balance of payments positions of some of the resource-poor Arab countries have faded as Morocco and Jordan have secured funding from the IMF. The recent surge in global agricultural... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary shift signals bank FX concerns In the past few months, the Turkish central bank has added to its policy toolkit by allowing banks to hold foreign currencies and gold in place of lira as required reserves for their lira liabilities... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the US stock market fully discounted QE3? We expect any boost to equity prices from the announcement of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) by the Fed to be much less significant than those that followed the first two rounds. 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Export restrictions to have little impact on wheat prices? We believe that fears of a reduction in wheat exports from the Black Sea region are overdone. We do not think that an outright ban is likely either from Russia or Ukraine. Any other forms of export... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia's worsening current account raises currency risks Indonesia has seen a sharp deterioration of its current account position over the past year. Large inflows of foreign direct investment mean the country should have few problems sustaining the deficit... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Malaysia stuck in a middle-income trap? Malaysia’s government is hoping that its Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) will take the country to high-income status by the end of this decade. Structural problems and sluggish global growth... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (July) Once again, strong price rises in London drove July’s rise in national average house prices. But with prices in the North continuing to fall, the North/South divide is growing ever wider. 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the rebound in the platinum price be sustained? South African labour disputes have caused platinum prices to rebound. We think that weak demand will cause prices to fall back by around 10% before the end of this year. However, recent events have... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can the economy recover without a rebound in property? When the global financial crisis hit, a surge in real estate investment helped China’s economy escape the slump. The government in Beijing is trying to engineer a recovery from the current downturn... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US Banks continue to strengthen balance sheets According to the latest data from the FDIC, US banks continued to benefit from shrinking loan losses in the second quarter, which allowed them to maintain a high capital ratio even as they expanded... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profit margins under pressure The 4.9% q/q decline in second-quarter business operating profits casts further doubt on the outlook for investment and payroll employment. We certainly expect the decline in profit margins to... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August suggests that households are becoming more nervous. Coming after last week’s soft durable goods orders data, this is another... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q2) The moderation in the pace of economic growth does not appear to have had a significant detrimental impact on the recovery in US house prices. At the end of the second quarter, prices on the National... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
