UK Economics Update Will the “Industrial Strategy” boost business investment? After announcing measures to support construction last week, today the Government has turned its attention to business investment. However, there appears to be little in Vince Cable’s “Industrial... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property still heading for a crash The Hong Kong government has introduced a number of measures to improve housing affordability. We don’t believe these measures will have their intended effect, and that in the short-term property... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, broad credit growth (Aug.) The strength of bank lending in August is a rare piece of positive economic news from China after weeks of downbeat data. But any optimism should be tempered by the fact that borrowing by firms, as... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jul.) July’s trade data showed a surprisingly large improvement following June’s awful figures. But stripping out a reversal of some one-off adverse factors in June, and in light of recent survey evidence... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update WTO tariff reductions will have little impact on Russian inflation The recent revision of Russia’s tariff system as part of its WTO accession is unlikely to have a marked impact on inflation, which is still on course to breach the Central Bank’s end-year target of 5... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Businesses’ hopes of recovery scaled back The Japanese government’s Business Outlook Survey suggests conditions improved slightly in Q3, with firms expecting further improvements over the next six months. Whilst clearly good news, the pick-up... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update No need to panic about recent surge in transactions-based yields Property Archive’s transactions-based all-property yield recently rose to its highest level since mid-2009. However, not least because the office sector has comparatively high yields and its share of... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Aug.) The main survey balances from the RICS were broadly unchanged in August. Activity remains very depressed, and prices are continuing to drift lower. But surveyors are still hopeful that sales will rise... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB provide a "third bail-out" for Greece? The ECB’s willingness to make “unlimited” government bond purchases in order to calm the situation in Spain could potentially have large positive repercussions for Greece too. But on balance, we doubt... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tariff cuts to keep Brazilian inflation from accelerating According to our estimates, the cuts in electricity tariffs announced by Brazil’s government last week should broadly offset any pick-up in food inflation that is likely to follow the recent spike in... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Relative resilience of global services provides little comfort Global business surveys suggest there has been a more marked slowdown in the growth of manufacturing activity than in services in the past four months. But the former is a better indicator of the... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update No sign yet of slowdown bottoming out The latest figures on the state of Japan’s economy in August were not uniformly bad, but as signs that the slowdown has bottomed out they were unconvincing. Our long-held view that the economy will... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update No quick fix for South Africa's mining sector The structural problems in South Africa’s mining sector have been brought starkly into focus by the ongoing bout of labour unrest. Although it is difficult to predict to how events will pan out from... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth expectations edge down The continued weakness in China’s monthly data has prompted us to knock down our forecast for GDP growth this year. Next year is likely to be disappointing too. 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Export boom keeps Turkey out of recession Q2 GDP data showed that while domestic demand is still contracting, a boom in exports has kept the Turkish economy out of recession. Admittedly, it looks like the economy has weakened in Q3, while... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
