Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf to remain net oil exporter for many years to come We don’t agree with recent reports suggesting that some of the major hydrocarbon producers in the Gulf are likely to become net oil importers within the next two decades. Instead, we think that a... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at regional growth 2012 has been a year of mixed fortunes for Latin America’s largest economies. In Chile and Peru, growth has bounced back following a minor wobble in late 2011 and both countries are currently... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Still waiting for budget reforms in India The newly appointed Finance Minister has promised to get the public finances onto a more stable footing. But he has been slow to act and in the mean time the deficit has continued to widen. 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea likely to cut again The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly held its policy rate at 3% today. Nevertheless, we still believe that global growth will continue to disappoint and that more policy stimulus will be needed to... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s cash rate still likely to be cut The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.5% today, as was widely anticipated. Most analysts expect the Bank to embark on significant policy tightening next year. In contrast... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack High household debt difficult to hurdle Households have been running a financial deficit for over a decade, a significant departure from their normal role as net savers, resulting in a massive increase in household debt. This trend has... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf’s bond rally last? The impressive rally in dollar-denominated bond markets across the GCC over the past year has seen yields in Qatar and Abu Dhabi hit record lows in recent months, while even those in debt-ridden Dubai... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The fiscal cliff – some scenarios We think there is a 70% chance that Congress will reach a last minute deal to prevent the $600bn of tax hikes and spending cuts that form the fiscal cliff from kicking in at the start of 2013. But... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Nominal GDP targeting remains a distant prospect Professor Michael Woodford's recent academic paper presented at the Fed's Jackson Hole conference is still making waves, not surprisingly given his conclusions that quantitative easing doesn't work... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the stimulus real? We can see no sign of a fresh stimulus in the government’s recent announcements that it has approved a large number of infrastructure projects. Most were already expected to go ahead and, while the... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s rise in euro-zone industrial production has not altered our view that the economy as a whole is now in a technical recession. 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, which will help to ease fears that the economy is overheating. 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q2) The number of financial & business services (FBS) sector jobs hit a new record high in Q2. With new development completions set to be high next year and in 2014, fresh falls in Central London office... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia's Q2 GDP puzzle It is difficult to square the recent statement by the Colombian Finance Minister, Mauricio Cárdenas, that the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 with the latest activity data. The release of the official... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Land values begin to rise The combination of rising sales volumes and a dwindling inventory of homes for sale saw house prices rise again in the latest data. Depending on which of the major house price indices we look at... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
