Russia’s policy conundrum

Policymakers in Russia are likely to find themselves in something of a bind over the coming months – while growth is starting to slow, inflation looks set to accelerate. For now it seems that inflation concerns will dominate the debate, and we would not rule out an interest rate hike in the near future. But this would be premature given the deteriorating growth outlook. In practice, we suspect that key policy rates will remain broadly unchanged over the next year or so.