Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul. 12) The surprising 2.0% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in July, partly due to volatility in aerospace, casts doubt over whether or not the economy actually grew in that month. This weakness... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) Consumer prices increased by a sizeable 0.6% m/m in August, largely thanks to a 9.0% m/m rebound in gasoline prices. Nevertheless, even after that big monthly gain, the annual rate of inflation only... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will office take-up continue to rise in Amsterdam and Brussels? The sharp rise in office take-up seen over the past six months in both Amsterdam and Brussels is unlikely to be sustained over the next 15 months or so. In fact, we think that take-up will fall as... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What does QE3 mean for Latin America? It is not clear that the first two rounds of QE by the Fed provided much of a boost to financial markets in Latin America and we doubt that a third dose of the same medicine will be any different. So... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Food inflation: no need to worry just yet The recent spike in global agricultural prices is likely to feed through to a pick-up in food inflation in most African economies in early 2013. But the shock to food inflation should be much smaller... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Easing of global tensions to delay rate cuts in Chile With external risks receding, the likelihood of near-term Chilean rate cuts has fallen. Even so, we remain sceptical about the chances of a sustained recovery in global growth and are sticking to our... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Jump in Indian inflation pushes back rate cuts Today’s announcement that inflation rose to 7.6% in August eliminates any residual chance that India’s central bank will cut rates on Monday. Indeed, we now expect monetary policy to remain on hold... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed launches open-ended QE3 The Fed today announced an open-ended QE3 focused on MBS purchases and extended its conditional commitment to leave its policy rate at near-zero through mid-2015. There were numerous other tweaks to... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher agricultural prices to have little inflation impact Even if it is sustained, this year’s rise in agricultural prices will have little impact on headline consumer prices, particularly in advanced economies. What’s more, we expect commodity prices to... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Positive medium-term outlook despite risks The ongoing unrest in South Africa’s mining sector has led many to question the medium-term economic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but we still believe the region has huge growth potential. In... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Safe-haven demand for UK assets eases The European Central Bank’s proclamation that it is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral euro-zone government bonds has prompted safe-haven demand for gilts to ease and sterling to... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Board downplaying dangers of soft domestic demand The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will conclude its September meeting next Wednesday (19th), and is likely to leave policy settings unchanged despite concerns about the economic environment. The fact... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers focussed on inflation risks for now The surprise decision this afternoon by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hike interest rates reflects growing concerns over rising inflation among policymakers. Another hike in rates is possible by... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Where next for the new-build premium? The new-build premium tends to move inversely to house prices, due to housebuilders’ pricing strategy and changes in affordability. Given that house prices are likely to drift lower over the next... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How concerning is the high contract cancellation rate? It’s obviously not good that 15% or more of all contracted home sales aren’t making it through to closing. But to the extent that the increase in the cancellation rate reflects would-be buyers’ desire... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
