China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep. 12) Today’s flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC and Markit provides signs of stabilization in China’s economy but not of recovery. 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for subdued growth Today’s GDP data show that New Zealand’s economy lost momentum in Q2, as was expected after a strong start to the year. We expect growth to settle at close to its trend rate over the coming quarters... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia’s asset prices lifted by global policy stimulus Economic data in Asia have continued to be soft, mainly due to weakness in exports. Asset prices across the region have nonetheless been boosted by policy actions in the US and other major economies... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Q3 growth on course for another big drop The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy stabilised in August but GDP growth is still likely to slow over Q3 as a whole. 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing correction begins in earnest The decade-long run-up in home prices, which has seen prices rise in some cities by over 150%, is now going into reverse, with national home prices falling in August for the first time in more than... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Rice prices to fall further as Thai exports recover Thailand’s exports of rice in 2012/13 are likely to be some 20-40% higher than the latest estimates for 2011/12. This should enable Thailand to regain its position as the world’s top rice exporting... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts & Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Consistent with our view that the housing market is experiencing a sustainable recovery, today’s data releases showed a further improvement in housing activity. 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Q3 growth may be weakest in two years August’s raft of activity data confirm that the Russian economy is running out of steam – in the first two months of Q3 growth appears to have slowed to its weakest pace in two years. With limited... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Stamp duty – What impact has the 7% rate had? Early indications are that the introduction of a 7% stamp duty rate on property valued at £2m or more has had no detrimental impact on activity in this market segment. Indeed for this part of the... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi reports add to downward pressure on oil prices Reports that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase oil supplies may be little new but they support our view that prices are set to fall sharply. As it happens, the Gulf state has already ramped up... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Widening current account deficit adds to concerns in S. Africa The recent sharp widening of South Africa’s current account deficit adds to mounting concerns over the direction of the economy and is another reason to expect the rand to weaken over the next six... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Higher oil output to provide a boost to Saudi growth Saudi Arabia’s recent commitment to maintain oil output at record levels means that our forecast for GDP growth this year is looking too pessimistic. We now expect the economy to expand by around 4.5%... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What is the outlook for Istanbul retail rents? Reports that retail rents in Istanbul have fallen by about 6% over the past year seem consistent with the sharp slowdown in consumer spending and the large boost to supply last year. But if we are... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The Central London shop boom: when and how will it end? The current boom in Central London standard shop capital values will eventually be put into reverse by a rise in yields. The most likely catalyst for this is shaping up to be a resolution of the euro... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ easing welcome but will not succeed in capping yen The Bank of Japan surprised markets today with a move that gave the impression of co-ordinated easing by the major global central banks, providing a welcome boost to confidence. However, we had... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
