US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) New home sales declined fractionally in August. However, with the new-build premium sharply lower and mortgage rates falling to record lows, we expect them to resume their upward trend before too long... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Pick-up in consumption growth likely to be temporary Although consumption growth has been fairly weak in the first half of this year, favourable income trends and a rebound in July's retail sales suggest that it may have picked up a little in the... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain still faces major obstacles The unveiling of the 2013 budget and the publication of the audit of the banking system later this week could potentially boost sentiment towards Spain and pave the way for a bail-out deal to be... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How has the Fed's reaction function changed? The Fed's decision to restart its large-scale asset purchases, this time with an open-ended agency MBS programme, is part of what could potentially be a much wider shift in the monetary policy... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Soybeans paper over cracks in Argentina’s growth model The rise in soybean prices since early June will limit any further downside to Argentine growth but is unlikely to set the economy up for the rapid rebound that many are predicting. In the absence of... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growth starts to slow Political conditions in Egypt have continued to improve in recent months, but the real economy is still struggling. Industrial production has stagnated and strains in the balance of payments persist... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep.) September’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that sales growth may have picked up slightly. While this is consistent with some of the other tentative signs of “green shoots” in the last few... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Further signs of fiscal slippage suggest that peripheral euro-zone governments will fall short of their ambitious budget deficit targets for this year. 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to signal weaker Q3, no recovery in Q4 The Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey for September (to be released on Monday) will probably show a deterioration in business conditions in the third quarter, and predictions for the fourth quarter are... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) Respondents to the latest Bank of England Credit Conditions survey reported a sharp rise in the availability of mortgage finance in Q3 and expect this to continue over the next three months. By... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey suggested that lenders expect the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) to boost the availability of credit to households. However, the picture... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican credit growth to support outperformance In contrast to much of Latin America, which has undergone a credit-fuelled boom in recent years, bank lending in Mexico has been more restrained. As a result, while many countries in the region are... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Thanks to the continued rally in equity prices, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence shot up to a seven-month high of 70.3 in September, from 61.3 in August. It appears that... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone break-up risk – what’s in the market? Tensions in the euro-zone have recently eased. However, we still anticipate that Greece and one or two other small countries will leave in due course. While we are not alone – a slim majority expects... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cuts rates, Poland set to follow Hungary cut interest rates again today, but a combination of familiar financial vulnerabilities and a failure to make meaningful progress on an IMF deal means that the room for further significant... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
