Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally looks overdone The recent surge in the Canadian dollar coincides neatly with the general rally in equity and commodity markets. The economic fundamentals that would typically justify this movement, however, are... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Beware the thorns among the green shoots The positive tone of most of the recent releases concerning economic activity have led some to argue that the “green shoots” of recovery have re-emerged. But, without wishing to downplay the... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug. 12) The official 'core' inflation figure, which nudged down to 1.6% in August from 1.7% in July, is likely to decline further in the coming months as external and domestic risks dampen GDP growth. With... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How big is Japan's business presence in China? Following the recent protests in China that have caused many Japanese firms to temporarily close factories and shops, in this Weekly we look at how the presence of Japanese companies in China has... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spain's waiting game is a risky one So far at least, the Spanish Government’s decision to delay seeking a bail-out does not seem to have backfired. After all, Spanish government bond yields remain low by recent standards. But the... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt deleveraging continues Despite the ongoing euro-zone crisis, the looming fiscal cliff and a drop back in the value of their financial assets, US households actually increased their debts in the second quarter by $74bn at an... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Sluggish world trade drags down global recovery Disappointing trade figures have prompted us to cut our forecast for the growth of world trade volumes to just 2% this year. This is much lower than last year’s growth, and is slightly lower than our... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update NAHB index overdoing the homebuilding recovery The homebuilding sector is recovering and we expect housing starts to post a decent year-on-year gain both this year and next. Nevertheless, a surge in starts on the scale implied by the NAHB... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian equities to continue to underperform A third round of quantitative easing in the US and policy actions in other major economies have boosted risk appetite and lifted equities in Asia. But the region’s equity markets are still on course... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Aug. 12) August’s poor public finances figures have further increased the chances that the deficit will significantly exceed the level specified in the fiscal plans. 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How stretched are US stock market valuations? The US Flow of Funds report published yesterday by the Federal Reserve suggests that the stock market remains significantly overvalued by historical standards. We doubt that equities are as far... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending likely to have grown in Q3 Following its fall in the second quarter, real household spending appears to have put in a stronger performance in Q3. Although retail sales volumes fell back a touch in August, spending on the high... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How will we know if the Funding for Lending Scheme is working? It is far too early to make a robust assessment of the impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme. But the spreads over wholesale funding costs that lenders charge on mortgages will be a key indicator... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian growth not as strong as it seems Second quarter GDP data from Colombia are not as strong as they seem at first sight. Almost all of the pick-up in growth to 1.6% q/q was driven by a sharp rise in construction output, which tends to... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
